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Sometimes Pictures Tell the Story

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Envisioning Criminology
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Abstract

Like so many others, I fell into a “life of crime” by accident. An electrical engineer by training, my first post-postdoc job was with an engineering consulting firm, where I was engaged in doing operations research, mostly for the US Navy. While I was there, in the late 1960s, the firm was commissioned to develop a new management information system for the Boston Police Department, and I was assigned to work on improving the BPD’s communications system.

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Notes

  1. 1.

    It also imbued in us what “linear” means, as used in linear regression, hierarchical linear modeling, and other techniques. And rare are the variables in social science that have a true linear relationship, so I also had a healthy skepticism of many findings based on linear analyses.

  2. 2.

    Case in point: I once reviewed a report for a federal agency in which the data set was so large that every relationship was significant. So the researchers took a 10% sample and were able to reduce the number of such findings to a more reasonable number. But in doing so they discarded 90% of the data, which to me, a data maven, is tantamount to committing a mortal sin.

  3. 3.

    This is one definition of recidivism. Others include the percentage who were rearrested or indicted or who had violated parole; see Maltz (1984), Chap. 6.

  4. 4.

    An earlier study did try to fit recidivism data to a complete exponential distribution, but it provided a less accurate fit.

  5. 5.

    This was before there were PCs or Macs, let alone the easy-to-use versions of SPSS and SAS, and well before STATA and SYSTAT were created. The university had its own data-handling program, Osiris, into which the data were entered.

  6. 6.

    A few years later, I was asked to perform the same kind of study by the World Bank, which had suspicions of collusion among contractors in bidding for medical-related contracts. I count this study as one of my failures, since they were all but certain that the bidders were colluding, but its traces were not apparent in the bid data that they provided me with. Sometimes data analyses aren’t enough.

  7. 7.

    A recent version is study ICPSR 24801, available at www.icpsr.umich.edu.

  8. 8.

    Besides, cases with many victims and one or more offenders, and cases with many offenders and one or more victims, may be quite different than one-on-ones. Since we were just exploring, I decided that we should start at this point.

  9. 9.

    Note also the input errors in the far left columns. I doubt if there were any 2- or 3-year-old murderers.

  10. 10.

    A 4-digit entry will have twice the ink of a 2-digit entry, so, for the mathematically inclined, the darkness of a cell corresponds to its logarithm to the base 10.

References

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Correspondence to Michael D. Maltz .

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Maltz, M.D. (2015). Sometimes Pictures Tell the Story. In: Maltz, M., Rice, S. (eds) Envisioning Criminology. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-15868-6_26

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