The Old and the New Convergence

Abstract

The epoch-making events that we have been discussing are a reflection of the end of what I would call “the old convergence”, which has now disappeared. I will try to explain the concept. For many decades in economic, and historical and economic analysis, simultaneous growth on a world scale has always been considered to be a convergent process. In other words, we asked ourselves what were the factors that determined—essentially from the twentieth century—a world trend in work productivity, trade and lifestyles that gradually became homogeneous as well as more intense from the periphery to the centre. The convergent growth model broke down a few years ago. Superimposed graphs have been replaced by a fractal pattern of geometries that are variable, mobile, overlapping and quick to appear. It seems there is no longer a peak that can be converged on. Europe is indubitably in a terrible downward slide, militarily, first and foremost, because it was unable to turn the Franco-German armies and those that surrounded them into a new European army.