Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Climate Change and Adaptation Challenges in the Pacific

  • Chapter
Climate Change in the Asia-Pacific Region

Part of the book series: Climate Change Management ((CCM))

Abstract

Pacific island countries are highly vulnerable to the effects of climate change, given their unique geography and natural-resource dependent economies. This paper reviews the potential impacts of climate change over the coming decades in the Pacific island-economies to identify measures for minimizing or mitigating these impacts. Drawing on the downscaling results of Global Climate Models (GCMs), the paper summarizes climate change effects such as changes in temperature, rainfall patterns, and sea levels. Assessment of GCMs suggests that sea level increases are likely to be substantially higher than previously accepted estimates, posing risks of inundation and salinization of freshwater in the Pacific island countries. Crop growth models suggest the potential for substantial losses of agricultural yields, while fisheries models predict changes to catches, and other modeling efforts identify substantial consequences for health and tourism. Integrated Assessment Models indicate the substantial total economic losses, if the business-as-usual growth strategy is followed. Appropriate adaptation strategies must be implemented, in order to ensure that poverty eradication and sustainable development are not impeded.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this chapter

Log in via an institution
Chapter
USD 29.95
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
eBook
USD 84.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as EPUB and PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
Hardcover Book
USD 109.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Durable hardcover edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Institutional subscriptions

Notes

  1. 1.

    The Pacific is defined here to include Cook Island, Republic of Fiji, Kiribati, Marshall Islands (RMI), Fed. States of Micronesia (FSM), Nauru, Palau, Papua New Guinea (PNG), Samoa, Solomon Islands, Timor-leste, Tonga, Tuvalu and Vanuatu.

  2. 2.

    The A1 scenario family describes a future world of very rapid economic growth, but declining global population after the mid-century, with varying assumptions of major technological progress: fossil intensive (A1FI), non-fossil energy sources (A1T), or a balance across all sources (A1B). The A2 scenario family describes a very heterogeneous world with continuously increasing global population and regionally oriented economic development. The B1 scenario family describes a convergent world with declining global population after the mid-century, rapid transition toward a service and information economy, reductions in material intensity, and the introduction of clean and resource-efficient technologies. The B2 scenario family describes a world where local solutions are emphasized for economic, social, and environmental sustainability (IPCC 2007).

  3. 3.

    This analysis was performed for the periods of 2050 (mean value of 2041–2060 periods) and 2070 (mean value of 2061–2080 periods) based on the projection data from the output of RegCM3 model under SRES A1B.

References

  • Anthoff D, Tol RS (2010) FUND–Climate framework for uncertainty, negotiation and distribution. University of California, Berkeley, USA

    Google Scholar 

  • Araus JL, Slafer GA (eds) (2011) Crop stress management and global climate change, vol 2. CABI, Oxon, UK

    Google Scholar 

  • Asian Development Bank (ADB) (2013a). Key indicators for Asia and the Pacific 2013: Asia’s economic transformation-where to? How and how fast? Manila.

    Google Scholar 

  • Asian Development Bank (ADB) (2013b). The economics of climate change in the Pacific. Manila

    Google Scholar 

  • Asian Development Bank (ADB) (2013c). Climate change, food security and sound economic livelihoods in Pacific Islands (unpublished). Manila

    Google Scholar 

  • Australian Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO (2011). Climate change in the Pacific: scientific assessment and new research. Volume 1: Regional Overview. Volume 2: Country Reports. 288 pp

    Google Scholar 

  • Bartholome E, Belward AS (2005) GLC2000: a new approach to global land cover mapping from Earth observation data. Int J Remote Sens 26:1959–1977

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Batjes N, Dijkshoorn K, Van Engelen V, Fischer G, Jones A, Montanarella L, Petri M (2009) Harmonized world soil database. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria

    Google Scholar 

  • Bell JD, Johnson JE, Hobday AJ (2011) Vulnerability of tropical pacific fisheries and aquaculture to climate change. Secretariat of the Pacific Community, Noumea, New Caledonia

    Google Scholar 

  • Bigano A, Hamilton JM, Tol RSJ (2007) The impact of climate change on domestic and international tourism: a simulation study. Integrated Assessment J 7(1):25–49

    Google Scholar 

  • Boer IR, Rakhman A (2011) Adaptation and impact of current and future climate variability on agriculture sector. In: Final report: The assessment of economics of climate change in the Pacific. Draft report submitted to ADB by CCROM, Bogor, Indonesia

    Google Scholar 

  • Brooks N, Adger WN (2003) Country level risk measures of climate-related natural disasters and implications for adaptation to climate change. Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, Norwich

    Google Scholar 

  • EM-DAT (2009). The OFDA/CRED international disaster database. Université Catholique de Louvain, Brussels, Belgium. Available at http://www.emdat.be/database.

  • European Space Agency (ESA) (2010) GlobCover 2009 land cover map, v2.3. Available at http://ionia1.esrin.esa.int/

  • Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) (2013) FAOSTAT. At http://faostat.fao.org/ site/291/default.aspx (accessed 11 October 2013)

  • Gehlen M, Bopp L, Emprin N, Aumont O, Heinze C, Ragueneau O (2006) Reconciling surface ocean productivity, export fluxes and sediment composition in a global biogeochemical ocean model. Biogeosciences 3(3)

    Google Scholar 

  • Hanna EG, Harley D, Xu C, McMichael AJ (2011) Overview of climate change impacts on human health in the pacific region. National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health College of Medicine, Biology and Environment, Australian National University, Canberra, Australia

    Google Scholar 

  • Hay JE, Forbes DL, Mimura N (2013) Understanding and managing global change in small islands. Sustain Sci 8(3):303–308

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hope C (2011) The PAGE09 integrated assessment model: a technical description. Cambridge Judge Business School Working Paper 4(11)

    Google Scholar 

  • Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (2001) Climate change 2001: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. In: McCarthy JJ, Canziani OF, Leary NA, Dokken DJ, White KS (Eds) Contribution of working group II to the third assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1032 pp

    Google Scholar 

  • Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (2007) Climate change 2007. The physical science basis. summary for policymakers. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. IPCC Secretariat. Switzerland

    Google Scholar 

  • IOC/UNESCO, IMO, FAO, UNDP (2011) A blueprint for ocean and coastal sustainability. Paris, IOC/UNESCO

    Google Scholar 

  • Jones JW, Hoogenboom G, Porter CH, Boote KJ, Batchelor WD, Hunt LA, Wilkens PW, Singh U, Gijsman AJ, Ritchie JT (2003) The DSSAT cropping system model. Eur J Agron 18(3):235–265

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kelman I, Khan S (2013) Progressive climate change and disasters: island perspectives. Nat Hazard 69(1):1131–1136

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lehodey P, Senina I, Murtugudde R (2008) A spatial ecosystem and populations dynamics model (SEAPODYM)–Modeling of tuna and tuna-like populations. Prog Oceanogr 78(4):304–318

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Link PM, Tol RSJ (2004) Possible economic impacts of a shutdown of the thermohaline circulation: an application of FUND. Portuguese Econ J 3:99–114

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • McGregor JL, Dix MR (2008) An updated description of the conformal-cubic atmospheric model. In: High Resolution Numerical Modelling of the Atmosphere and Ocean. Springer, New York, pp 51–75

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  • Narita D, Anthoff D, Tol RSJ (2009) Damage costs of climate change through intensification of tropical cyclone activities: an application of FUND. Clim Res 39:87–97

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Narita D, Anthoff D, Tol RSJ (2010) Economic costs of extratropical storms under climate change: an application of FUND. J Environ Plan Manage 53:371–384

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • NASA Land Processes Distributed Active Archive Center (LP DAAC) (2009). MODIS MCD12Q1 Land Cover 2008 L3 Global 500m SIN Grid. USGS/Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center, Sioux Falls, South Dakota, USA.

    Google Scholar 

  • Pal JS, Giorgi F, Bi X, Elguindi N, Solmon F, Rauscher SA, Steiner AL (2007) Regional climate modeling for the developing world: The ICTP RegCM3 and RegCNET. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 88(9):1395–1409

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pauly D, Christensen V, Walters C (2000) Ecopath, Ecosim, and Ecospace as tools for evaluating ecosystem impact of fisheries. ICES Journal of Marine Science: Journal du Conseil 57(3):697–706

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Roeckner E, Bäuml G, Bonaventura L, Brokopf R, Esch M, Giorgetta M, Hagemann S, Kirchner I, Kornblueh L, Manzini E, Rhodin A, Schlese U, Schulzweida U, Tompkins A (2003) The atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM5. Part I: Model description. Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Rep 349:127

    Google Scholar 

  • Stern N (2006) The Stern review: the economics of climate change. HM Treasury, London

    Google Scholar 

  • Tol RSJ (2002a) Estimates of the damage costs of climate change—Part 1: Benchmark estimates. Environ Res Econ 21(1):47–73

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tol RSJ (2002b) Estimates of the damage costs of climate change—Part II: dynamic estimates. Environ Res Econ 21(2):135–160

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tol RSJ (2011) The economic impact of climate change on pacific island nations. Unpublished report submitted to the Asian Development Bank

    Google Scholar 

  • United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) (2012) Statistical yearbook for Asia and the Pacific 2012. United Nations, Bangkok

    Google Scholar 

  • Wairiu M, Lal M, Iese V (2012) Climate change implications for crop production in pacific islands region. ISBN: 978-953-307-887-8, InTech, DOI: 10.5772/33885

  • Walsh KJE, McInnes KL, McBride JL (2011) Climate change impacts on tropical cyclones and extreme sea levels in the South Pacific—A regional assessment. Global Planetary Change 80–81(2012):149–164

    Google Scholar 

  • World Bank (2013) PovcalNet: an online poverty analysis tool (at http://iresearch.worldbank.org/PovcalNet/index.htm).

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Economics and Research Department, Asian Development Bank, 6 ADB Avenue, 1550, Mandaluyon, Metro Manila, Philippines

    Cyn-Young Park, David A. Raitzer, Jindra Nuella G. Samson & Paulo Rodelio M. Halili

Authors
  1. Cyn-Young Park
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. David A. Raitzer
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Jindra Nuella G. Samson
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Paulo Rodelio M. Halili
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Cyn-Young Park .

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

  1. Hamburg University of Applied Sciences Faculty of Life Sciences, Hamburg, Germany

    Walter Leal Filho

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

© 2015 Springer International Publishing Switzerland

About this chapter

Cite this chapter

Park, CY., Raitzer, D.A., Samson, J.N.G., Halili, P.R.M. (2015). Climate Change and Adaptation Challenges in the Pacific. In: Leal Filho, W. (eds) Climate Change in the Asia-Pacific Region. Climate Change Management. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-14938-7_13

Download citation

Publish with us

Policies and ethics

Search

Navigation