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Modeling the Effects of Climate Change on Disease Severity: A Case Study of Ceratonova (syn Ceratomyxa) shasta in the Klamath River

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Abstract

Shifts in future temperature and precipitation patterns will have profound effects on host-parasite interactions and the dynamics of disease in freshwater systems. The aims of this chapter are to present an overview of myxozoan disease dynamics in the context of climate change, and to illustrate how these might be predicted over the next several decades by developing a case study of disease dynamics of Ceratonova (syn Ceratomyxa) shasta in the Klamath River, California USA. Our case study introduces a model ensemble for predicting changes in disease dynamics under different climate scenarios (warm/dry, moderate/median, and cool/wet) from 2020 to 2060. The ensemble uses Global Circulation Models (GCMs) and basin scaled models for the Klamath River to generate predictions for future water temperature and river discharge. The environmental data are used as inputs for a predictive model and a degree day model to simulate effects of climate change on polychaete host populations and on C. shasta spore viability, respectively. Outputs from these models were then used to parameterize an epidemiological model to predict changes in disease dynamics under each climate scenario. The epidemiological model outputs were measured against baselines established using real data for low (2006), high (2008) and intermediate (2011) disease risk years. In general, the epidemiological model predicts that except for infrequent high discharge years, C. shasta dynamics will be similar to the high disease risk baseline (2008). This suggests that the recovery and management of Klamath River salmon will continue to be impacted by C. shasta.

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Acknowledgments

We thank Katrina Wright, USFWS Arcata, CA office for the 2DHM outputs and Russell Perry, USGS, for providing data and assistance with its interpretation for the environmental data models. This work was supported by Oregon Sea Grant under project number R/BT-47 and award number NA10OAR4170059 from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Sea Grant College Program, U.S. Department of Commerce, and by appropriations made by the Oregon State Legislature. The findings, conclusions and recommendations are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of these funding bodies.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Fisheries and Wildlife, Oregon State University, 104 Nash Hall, Corvallis, OR, 97330, USA

    R. Adam Ray

  2. Department of Microbiology, Oregon State University, 226 Nash Hall, Corvallis, OR, 97330, USA

    Julie D. Alexander & Jerri L. Bartholomew

  3. Department of Mathematics, Oregon State University, 296 Kidder Hall, Corvallis, OR, 97330, USA

    Patrick De Leenheer

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  1. R. Adam Ray
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  2. Julie D. Alexander
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  4. Jerri L. Bartholomew
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Correspondence to R. Adam Ray .

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Editors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Life Sciences, Natural History Museum, London, United Kingdom

    Beth Okamura

  2. Department of Life Sciences, Natural History Museum, London, United Kingdom

    Alexander Gruhl

  3. Department of Microbiology, Oregon State University, Corvallis, Oregon, USA

    Jerri L. Bartholomew

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Adam Ray, R., Alexander, J.D., De Leenheer, P., Bartholomew, J.L. (2015). Modeling the Effects of Climate Change on Disease Severity: A Case Study of Ceratonova (syn Ceratomyxa) shasta in the Klamath River. In: Okamura, B., Gruhl, A., Bartholomew, J. (eds) Myxozoan Evolution, Ecology and Development. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-14753-6_19

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