Abstract
Saturated load of a power system is the key index for the local grid planning, which identifies the final scale of a power system. Due to the long time span and sensitivity to economic factors, the precision and reliability of the direct saturated load forecasting (SLF) are not satisfied. Therefore, this chapter mainly proposes a novel SLF model derived from the saturated economy forecasting (SEF), based on nonlinear system dynamics. A practical case was investigated according to the real economic and load data of Fujian province, China. The method proposed was proved reliable, with a consistent result but more flexibility and extension to the per capita electricity consumption (PCEC) method.
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Acknowledgments
The research was financially supported by the Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu province (No. BK20130742).
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Bian, H., Wang, X. (2015). Saturated Load Forecasting Based on Nonlinear System Dynamics. In: Wang, W. (eds) Proceedings of the Second International Conference on Mechatronics and Automatic Control. Lecture Notes in Electrical Engineering, vol 334. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-13707-0_39
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-13707-0_39
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