Introduction

Abstract

Research on human-induced climate change has a long history. The Swedish scientist Svante Arrhenius quantified the impact of the infrared absorption capacity of the greenhouse gas CO₂ as early as 1896. He pointed out that cutting its concentration in the earth’s atmosphere by half would produce an ice age, while doubling the concentration would result in a warming of 5–6 °C (Arrhenius 1896). After almost a century of further scientific analysis, the US National Academy of Sciences was asked by the US government administration to assess the scientific basis concerning the projection of possible future climate change resulting from anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions. The respective report (Charney et al. 1979) found that a doubling of the earth’s atmospheric CO₂ concentration was associated with a temperature increase of 1.5–4.5 °C, an assessment that has been repeatedly reconfirmed since. The report also concluded, that “it appears that the warming will eventually occur, and the associated regional climatic changes so important to the assessment of socioeconomic consequences may well be significant, but unfortunately the latter cannot yet be adequately projected” (Charney et al. 1979, p. 3).