Abstract
A simple simulation model of depopulation dynamics is presented. It is based on the agent-based simulation and stochastic finite automata theory results. The computation experiments on the long-term prediction of the number of population and proportions among the different age groups prove the danger of 50% reduction in the number of population, degradation of the capable and reproductive age group population and undesirable increase of the number of pensioners. The simulation (agent) technique was applied to detect the possibilities of the depopulation process termination and favorable age structure restoration.
The model of long-term dynamic planning of the small business development is formulated in the terms of non-linear mathematic programming theory. It can be applied to detect the small business rational specialization and estimate the resources required for the small business successful development which can prevent the depopulation process.
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Krushel, E.G., Stepanchenko, I.V., Panfilov, A.E., Haritonov, I.M., Berisheva, E.D. (2014). Forecasting Model of Small City Depopulation Processes and Possibilities of Their Prevention. In: Kravets, A., Shcherbakov, M., Kultsova, M., Iijima, T. (eds) Knowledge-Based Software Engineering. JCKBSE 2014. Communications in Computer and Information Science, vol 466. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-11854-3_38
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-11854-3_38
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