Skip to main content

Short-Term Forecasting: Simple Methods to Predict Network Traffic Behavior

  • Conference paper
Internet of Things, Smart Spaces, and Next Generation Networks and Systems (NEW2AN 2014)

Part of the book series: Lecture Notes in Computer Science ((LNCCN,volume 8638))

Included in the following conference series:

Abstract

In the article we evaluate the accuracy of simple linear forecasting methods applied to short-term prediction of network traffic behavior, namely the traffic intensity. Such investigation is carried out in order to determine the possibility of such methods employment in network management systems and various TE-implementations. Also time series extracted from real network traffic are statistically analysed to obtain general properties of aggregated network traffic behavior.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this chapter

Chapter
USD 29.95
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
eBook
USD 39.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
Softcover Book
USD 54.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Compact, lightweight edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Institutional subscriptions

Preview

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

References

  1. Awduche, D., et al.: Overview and principles of Internet traffic engeeniring, RFC 3272 (May 2002)

    Google Scholar 

  2. Shu, Y., et al.: Traffic prediction using FARIMA models. In: IEEE International Conference on Communications, ICC 1999, pp. 891–895. IEEE (1999)

    Google Scholar 

  3. Xue, F., Lee, T.T.: Modeling and predicting long-range dependent traffic with FARIMA processes. In: Proc. International Symposium on Communication, Kaohsiung, Taiwan (1999)

    Google Scholar 

  4. Grebennikov, A., Krukov, Y., Chernyagin, D.: A prediction method of network traffic using time series models, pp. 1–10 (2011)

    Google Scholar 

  5. Rutka, G.: Network Traffic Prediction using ARIMA and Neural Networks Models. Electronics and Electrical Engineering, 47–52 (2008)

    Google Scholar 

  6. Guang, S.: Network Traffic Prediction Based on The Wavelet Analysis and Hopfield Neural Network. International Journal of Future Computer and Communication 2(2), 101–105 (2013)

    Article  MathSciNet  Google Scholar 

  7. Klevecka, I.: Forecasting network traffic: A comparison of neural networks and linear models. In: Proceedings of the 9th International Conference: Reliability and Statistics in Transportation and Communication, RelStat 2009, pp. 21–24 (2009)

    Google Scholar 

  8. Koopman, S.J., Shephard, N.: State space and unobserved component models. Cambridge University Press (2004)

    Google Scholar 

  9. Kendall, M.G., Stuart, A.: The advanced theory of statistics, vol. II and III (1961)

    Google Scholar 

  10. Makhoul, J.: Linear prediction: A tutorial review. Proceedings of the IEEE, 561–580 (1975)

    Google Scholar 

  11. Gardner Jr., E.S.: Exponential smoothing: The state of the art. Part II. International Journal of Forecasting, 637–666 (2006)

    Google Scholar 

  12. Benson, T., Akella, A., Maltz, D.A.: Network traffic characteristics of data centers in the wild. In: Proceedings of the 10th ACM SIGCOMM Conference on Internet Measurement, pp. 267–280. ACM (2010)

    Google Scholar 

  13. Knoke, J.D.: Testing for randomness against autocorrelation: Alternative tests. Biometrika, 523–529 (1977)

    Google Scholar 

  14. Bartels, R.: The rank version of von Neumann’s ratio test for randomness. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 40–46 (1982)

    Google Scholar 

  15. Fuller, W.A.: Introduction to statistical time series. John Wiley and Sons (2009)

    Google Scholar 

  16. Rose, O.: Estimation of the Hurst parameter of long-range dependent time series. University of Wurzburg, Institute of Computer Science Research Report Series (February 1996)

    Google Scholar 

  17. Clegg, R.G.: A practical guide to measuring the Hurst parameter, arXiv preprint math/0610756 (2006)

    Google Scholar 

  18. Fildes, R., et al.: Generalising about univariate forecasting methods: further empirical evidence. International Journal of Forecasting, 339–358 (1998)

    Google Scholar 

  19. Taylor, J.W.: Smooth transition exponential smoothing. Journal of Forecasting, 385–404 (2004)

    Google Scholar 

  20. Kalekar, P.S.: Time series forecasting using Holt-Winters exponential smoothing. Kanwal Rekhi School of Information Technology, 1–13 (2004)

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

© 2014 Springer International Publishing Switzerland

About this paper

Cite this paper

Dort-Golts, A. (2014). Short-Term Forecasting: Simple Methods to Predict Network Traffic Behavior. In: Balandin, S., Andreev, S., Koucheryavy, Y. (eds) Internet of Things, Smart Spaces, and Next Generation Networks and Systems. NEW2AN 2014. Lecture Notes in Computer Science, vol 8638. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-10353-2_33

Download citation

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-10353-2_33

  • Publisher Name: Springer, Cham

  • Print ISBN: 978-3-319-10352-5

  • Online ISBN: 978-3-319-10353-2

  • eBook Packages: Computer ScienceComputer Science (R0)

Publish with us

Policies and ethics