Abstract
This chapter examines the implications of China’s rise for transatlantic relations. Will China’s rise weaken transatlantic ties or will it be a force for more cooperation across the Atlantic? While China’s rise presents more challenges than opportunities for the transatlantic relationship, this chapter argues that the US and European states can develop complementary strategies and a division of labor in dealing with a rising China, US–China bipolarity, and a more East Asia-centered world.
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Notes
- 1.
- 2.
Ross et al. (2010).
- 3.
The argument is that a new international system that is emerging because of changes in the distribution of capabilities within the system. However, the international system remains anarchical.
- 4.
- 5.
- 6.
Albert (2001, 64).
- 7.
Coker (2009). It should be noted that the balance of power theory predominantly applies to great power relations.
- 8.
- 9.
- 10.
Walt (1987).
- 11.
Lieber and Alexander (2005/2006, 192).
- 12.
- 13.
The State Council Information Office of the PRC (2008).
- 14.
Tunsjø (2011a). The author is grateful to Johannes Gullestad Rø for his comments and suggestions in conceptualizing the term hedging.
- 15.
- 16.
Foot (2010).
- 17.
Shambaugh (2005a).
- 18.
- 19.
- 20.
- 21.
“Asia’s Rise Means We Must Re-think EU-US Relations,” Europe’s World, 1 February 2007. Available from http://europesworld.org/2007/02/01/asias-rise-means-we-must-re-think-eu-us-relations/. Accessed 2014-05-02.
- 22.
A warning to the EU and the European defense industry that their access to the US market might be restricted if the weapons embargo were lifted has probably been the most important tool available to US policymakers for ensuring compliance with their position.
- 23.
“Ashton pragmatic on China in EU foreign policy blueprint,” EUobserver, 17 December 2010.
- 24.
- 25.
Keohane (2002).
- 26.
- 27.
“Why Europe no longer matters,” The Washington Post, 18 June 2011.
- 28.
“Full Text: Barack Obama’s Speech in Tokyo,” Financial Times, 14 November 2009.
- 29.
“Europe and Benign Neglect,” The New York Times, 6 September 2010.
- 30.
Ibid.
- 31.
- 32.
Walt (1998/1999).
- 33.
- 34.
- 35.
Shambaugh (2005a).
- 36.
- 37.
Given the role of the EU and the financial austerity in many European states, the idea of a strong arms buildup and an arms race in Europe may seem far-fetched. However, great powers’ shifting fortunes and ambitions have surprised many in the past, and the scenario cannot be ruled out.
- 38.
- 39.
Art (2004, 201–202); “Europe and Benign Neglect,” New York Times, 6 September 2010.
- 40.
“Asia’s Rise Reshapes Global Economy, Prices, RBA’s Stevens Says,” Bloomberg, 9 March 2011.
- 41.
Kennedy (2010).
- 42.
Ibid.
- 43.
- 44.
“Obama Speech on Asia Well Received in the Region,” The Independent, 14 November 2009.
- 45.
Art (2004, 201).
- 46.
Walt (1998/1999).
- 47.
Ibid.
- 48.
- 49.
Walt (1998/1999).
- 50.
- 51.
US Department of Defense (2012).
- 52.
Rø (2013).
- 53.
Tunsjø (2013a).
- 54.
The last time a US carrier operated in Norwegian waters and close to where Russia operates its Northern Fleet was in 1993.
- 55.
“Obama: Defense Cuts Won’t Affect Asia-Pacific Region,” USA Today, 17 November 2011.
- 56.
- 57.
- 58.
Waltz (2000, 37).
- 59.
Waltz (2000, 27).
- 60.
- 61.
- 62.
- 63.
Layne (2006, 2009, 2012); Posen (2011).
- 64.
Posen (2009).
- 65.
Layne (2012, 205).
- 66.
- 67.
Waltz (1979, 131). The key question now is whether China can be placed in the top rank with the US and score above other great powers, such as Russia.
- 68.
- 69.
- 70.
Tunsjø (2013a).
- 71.
Walt (1998/1999).
- 72.
- 73.
Mackinder (1904, 427, 436).
- 74.
- 75.
- 76.
Art (2010).
- 77.
Tunsjø (2013a).
- 78.
- 79.
Ross et al. (2010).
- 80.
Waltz (1979, 168–170).
- 81.
The argument for a return to bipolarity is not discussed in depth in this chapter. However, it should be noted that roughly similar bipolar distribution of capabilities between the current international system and the system in 1950 has not resulted in similar effects. This could be a result of the fact that the international system is not yet bipolar. Conversely, and more convincingly, it can be argued that the international system is at the starting point of a new bipolar era, but the differences and importance of geography (continental Europe vs. maritime East Asia), nuclear weapons, economic interdependence, ideology, and alliance formations will postpone balancing in the twenty-first century bipolar system until China reaches more power parity with the United States.
- 82.
Waltz (1979, 127).
- 83.
Kluth and Pilegaard (2011).
- 84.
The concept of hedging has also been applied to other great powers, such as Japan and India, as well as other states in Asia and Europe. Samuels (2007, 7) sums up Japan’s security policy in terms of hedging and goes a long way to suggest that the Japanese case can be generalized: “Japan has long been doing what all states do to reduce risk and maximize gain in an uncertain world—it has hedged.” For hedging behavior in Asia see among others: “Asia primed for a new Cold War,” The Australian, 2 February 2011; Cruz De Castro (2009); Department of Defense (Australia) (2009); Goh (2005, 2006); Kuik (2008); Murphy (2010); Sutter (2006). On hedging in Europe, see Art (2004). On hedging in India, see Kapila (2008) and Scott (2008); “The country needs a more informed debate on China: Nirupama Rao,” The Hindu, 22 December 2010.
- 85.
Medeiros (2006).
- 86.
In the White House’s National Security Strategy (2006), published in March 2006, the Bush administration spelled out its general outlook on China: “The US will welcome the emergence of a China that is peaceful and prosperous and that cooperates with us on common challenges and mutual interest …while we hedge [my emphasis] against other possibilities” (pp. 41–42). The 2006 US Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR) communicates the same general sentiment (p. 30). In several of its annual reports to Congress on China’s military developments, the Department of Defense (DoD) underscores that China’s rise will “naturally and understandably prompt international responses that hedge against the unknown [or] lead to hedging against the unknown” (US Department of Defense 2010b). Moreover, the US DoD’s June 2008 National Defense Strategy elaborates on the “hedging strategy,” stating that the “Department will respond to China’s expanding military power, and to uncertainties over how it might be used, through shaping and hedging” (2008, 10).
- 87.
Zoellick (2005).
- 88.
US Department of Defense (2010a, 32, 90, 94).
- 89.
While hedging is not part of their analysis, the authors of a Transatlantic Academy report recommend that the US, NATO, and the EU redefine and reshape a new division of labor between them. See Deudney et al. (2011).
- 90.
Brooks and Wohlforth (2005, 91–92).
- 91.
Michta (2011, 60).
- 92.
Tunsjø (2011b).
- 93.
“NATO Needs Better Nonmilitary Options,” Defense News, 21 March 2011.
- 94.
“NATO Needs Better Nonmilitary Options,” Defense News, 21 March 2011.
- 95.
Waltz (1979, 105).
- 96.
Schweller (1999).
- 97.
Foot (2006, 88–90).
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Tunsjø, Ø. (2015). China’s Rise: Towards a Division of Labor in Transatlantic Relations. In: Aggarwal, V., Newland, S. (eds) Responding to China’s Rise. The Political Economy of the Asia Pacific, vol 15. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-10034-0_8
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