Cleopatra’s Nose and Complex International Politics

Abstract

This chapter outlines what a theory of international politics founded on this assumption of complexity would involve. It begins by discussing the attributes and properties of a complex political system, with particular attention paid to the actors, their interrelationships and how one theorises what, for Waltz and others, which has always appeared impossible. It continues by applying this proposed theory to three key cases that have been denied consistent explanation by realist theorists in international relations. These three cases, namely the outbreak of World War One, the political integration of the European continent and the post-Cold War security landscape in Europe, demonstrate the utility of a complex approach in cases where realist theory has significant difficulty in explaining fully the catalysts and circumstances of international political evolution. The discussion that follows the presentation of these three cases highlights the efficacy of the complex approach while also admitting to the important problems that the approach also engenders for the theorist, particularly in relation to medium-term and long-term prediction. Though real and valid criticisms of the proposed paradigm are prevalent, it will be argued that they are insufficient to invalidate the approach as a whole, particularly when the long realist record of prediction is so woeful. In concluding the chapter it will be argued that the complex approach proposed offers the theorists real advances over predominant realist theories and that theoretical transition and paradigmatic shift is not only possible, but necessary.