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Using Climate and Crop Simulation Models for Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Agronomic Practices and Productivity

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Sustainable Intensification to Advance Food Security and Enhance Climate Resilience in Africa

Abstract

Due to heavy dependence on rain-fed agriculture, most developing countries, particularly Sub-Saharan Africa including Tanzania, are likely to suffer negatively to the impacts of climate change. Future climate projections predict a 2–4 °C rise in temperature by 2100, and rainfall is expected to decrease especially in the interior regions. As a result, grain production is predicted to decrease, and particularly maize, which is the main cereal crop, will experience up to 33 % decrease in yield. To capture the impacts of climate change relevant to agronomic productivity, site-specific assessments are needed to inform adaptation options. This study investigated the impacts of climate change on maize production using outputs of Global Circulation Models (GCMs) and crop simulation models. Current conventional and recommended agronomic practices in Same District, Kilimanjaro region, Tanzania were simulated by Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM) model using long-term and projected future climates. Four maize cultivars commonly used in the study area Situka, Kito, Sc401, and TMV1 were used. Results show a yield decline of 13 % for cultivar Situka, and an increase of 10 % and 15 % for cultivars Sc401 and TMV1, respectively, in the long rainy season (March-May) under the conventional practices. A yield increase of 10 % is projected for Sc401 and TMV1 and a decrease of 10 % for Situka and 45 % for Kito cultivars under recommended practices. The short rainy season (October–December) is projected to register yield increases of between 75 and 146 % for all cultivars under both conventional and recommended agronomic practices. Generally, the study has revealed that the yield of only some maize varieties are expected to decrease due to a 2 °C rise in temperature and only during the long rainy season. Therefore, there is a need for more site-specific climate change studies that evaluate several crop varieties grown in the area.

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Abbreviations

APSIM:

Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator

CGCM:

Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis

CNRM:

Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques

DSSAT:

Decision support system for agrotechnology transfer

DUL:

Dry upper limit

ENSO:

El Nino – southern oscillation

GCMs:

Global circulation models

IPSL:

Institut Pierre Simon Laplace

LL:

Lower limit

MAM:

March-April-May season

OND:

October-November-December season

SOM:

Self-organizing map

SSA:

Sub-Saharan Africa

TOSCA:

Tanzania Official Seed Certification Agency

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Acknowledgement

The authors wish to acknowledge the Soilwater Management Research Programme (SWMRP) of SUA for financial and technical support during the implementation of this research work.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Agricultural Engineering and Land Planning, Sokoine University of Agriculture, 3003, Morogoro, Tanzania

    Winfred B. Mbungu, Henry F. Mahoo, Siza D. Tumbo, Frederick C. Kahimba & Boniface P. Mbilinyi

  2. Department of Soil Science, Sokoine University of Agriculture, 3008, Morogoro, Tanzania

    Filbert B. Rwehumbiza

Authors
  1. Winfred B. Mbungu
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  2. Henry F. Mahoo
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  3. Siza D. Tumbo
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  4. Frederick C. Kahimba
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  5. Filbert B. Rwehumbiza
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  6. Boniface P. Mbilinyi
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Winfred B. Mbungu .

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

  1. Carbon Management and Sequestration Center, Ohio State University OARDC, Columbus, Ohio, USA

    Rattan Lal

  2. Department of Environmental Sciences, Norwegian University of Life Sciences, Ås, Norway

    Bal Ram Singh

  3. Sokoine University of Agriculture, Morogoro, Tanzania

    Dismas L. Mwaseba

  4. AEDE/CFAES, The Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio, USA

    David Kraybill

  5. IPA/CFAES, The Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio, USA

    David O. Hansen

  6. Department of International Environment and Development Studies/Noragric, Norwegian University of Life Sciences (NMBU), Ås, Norway

    Lars Olav Eik

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Mbungu, W.B., Mahoo, H.F., Tumbo, S.D., Kahimba, F.C., Rwehumbiza, F.B., Mbilinyi, B.P. (2015). Using Climate and Crop Simulation Models for Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Agronomic Practices and Productivity. In: Lal, R., Singh, B., Mwaseba, D., Kraybill, D., Hansen, D., Eik, L. (eds) Sustainable Intensification to Advance Food Security and Enhance Climate Resilience in Africa. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-09360-4_10

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