Evaluation of the ENSEMBLES Transient RCM Simulations Over Spain: Present Climate Performance and Future Projections
We analyzed the state-of-the-art ensemble of RCMs produced in the ENSEMBLES project, focusing on daily maximum temperature and precipitation over Spain. We found that the best GCM-RCM couplings show a relatively good agreement with observed climate. The projected changes up to 2050 (A1B scenario) are quite consistent among the RCMs, generally indicating a decrease in precipitation (between −5 and −25 %) and an increase in maximum temperature (between 1 and 2.5 °C, depending on the season/area). These results suggest the urgency to develop and apply adaptation and mitigation strategies, also considering that, already at present, many areas in Spain suffer from problems related to climate change.
KeywordsRegional climate model Climate change projections
This work was supported by esTcena (Exp. 200800050084078), EXTREMBLES (CGL2010-21869) Spanish projects, from Plan Nacional de I+D+i 2008–2011 and by the Project of Interest ‘‘NextData’’ of the Italian Ministry for Education, University and Research. For the RCM data used in this study, we acknowledge the ENSEMBLES project, funded by the European Commission’s 6th Framework Programme through contract GOCE-CT-2003-505539. The authors thank AEMET and UC for the Spain02 dataset provided for this work.
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