Abstract
Socio-economic prediction of medals for London 2012 is performed “by sport” using OLS and a discretization routine. The success ratio is above 65 % for any given sports, especially for disciplines that award more than 30 medals. At the overall country level, the success raises above 85 %. The analysis of the award winning process by sports shed also new light about the critical factors that might dictate the success and that are liable to set sport policies, including the development of sound social networks and the investment on sport infrastructures to foster talent.
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Notes
- 1.
We have also done the significance analysis with the two original models to demonstrate the higher potential for analysis of the proposed model (see Appendix). In the JA model, the variables with predictive power are GDPCAP and POP as well as MED to account for size of the sport or number of medals to be awarded. HOST and FROST also play an important role. In the Pfau model, \(MShare_{t-1}\) accounts for tradition in basically all of the sports as well as POP. It is very difficult for newcomer countries to win medals unless the medals are bought via nationalization [16]. The models might also be compared, in terms of full explanation, as measured by the adjusted correlation coefficient; both the Pfau model and the “by sport” summer model perform better than the JA model.
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Otamendi, F.J., Doncel, L.M. (2014). By Sport Predictions Through Socio Economic Factors and Tradition in Summer Olympic Games: The Case of London 2012. In: Pardalos, P., Zamaraev, V. (eds) Social Networks and the Economics of Sports. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-08440-4_8
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