Abstract
Recent studies propose that some dynamical systems, such as climate, ecological and financial systems, among others, present critical transition points named to as tipping points (TP). Climate TPs can severely affect millions of lives on Earth so that an active scientific community is working on finding early warning signals. This paper deals with the segmentation of a paleoclimate time series to find segments sharing common patterns with the purpose of finding one or more kinds of segments corresponding to TPs. Due to the limitations of classical statistical methods, we propose the use of a genetic algorithm to automatically segment the series together with a method to perform time series segmentation comparisons. Without a priori information, the method clusters together most of the TPs and avoids false positives, which is a promising result given the challenging nature of the problem.
This work has been subsidized by the Ariadna project 13-9202 of the European Space Agency. The research work of M. Pérez-Ortiz, P.A. Gutiérrez, J. Sánchez-Monedero and C. Hervás-Martínez is partially funded by the TIN2011-22794 project of the Spanish Ministerial Commission of Science and Technology (MICYT), FEDER funds and the P11-TIC-7508 project of the “Junta de Andalucía” (Spain).
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Pérez-Ortiz, M. et al. (2014). Time Series Segmentation of Paleoclimate Tipping Points by an Evolutionary Algorithm. In: Polycarpou, M., de Carvalho, A.C.P.L.F., Pan, JS., Woźniak, M., Quintian, H., Corchado, E. (eds) Hybrid Artificial Intelligence Systems. HAIS 2014. Lecture Notes in Computer Science(), vol 8480. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-07617-1_29
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-07617-1_29
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