Abstract
Probabilistic Safety Assessments (PSA) are widely used to evaluate the safety of installations or systems. Nevertheless, classical PSA methods—as fault trees or event trees—have difficulties dealing with time dependencies, competition between events and uncertainties. The Stimulus-Driven Theory of Probabilistic Dynamics (or SDTPD) copes with these dynamics aspects. It is a general theory based on dynamic reliability, supplemented by the notion of stimulus. Hence, each event is divided into two phases: the stimulus activation (as soon as all the conditions for the event occurrence are met) and a delay (before the actual occurrence of the event), with a possible stimulus deactivation if the conditions are no more met. It allows modeling in an accurate way the competitions between events. This chapter presents the theory of the SDTPD as well as the solving of a simple example, using the MoSt computer code.
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Acknowledgements
A part of the work presented in this chapter has been developed in the framework of a collaboration between ULB (Université Libre de Bruxelles, Ecole Polytechnique) and IRSN (Institut de Radioprotection et de Sûreté Nucléaire, France).
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Peeters, A. (2015). The Stimulus-Driven Theory of Probabilistic Dynamics. In: Kadry, S., El Hami, A. (eds) Numerical Methods for Reliability and Safety Assessment. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-07167-1_4
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-07167-1_4
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