Abstract
Destination choice modeling, after an earthquake, is challenging for the moderate seismic zones due to the shortage of evacuation data. Destination choice decisions are important for emergency planners to ensure the safety of evacuees, and to estimate the demand and specify the capacity of shelters. This study proposes a model for the behavior of evacuees in the aftermath of an earthquake using households as the unit of analysis. This study also considers heterogeneous mixtures of population in terms of income and ethnicity from different parts of the city. The Stated Preference (SP) method, using various hypothetical scenarios of shelter choice game in the event of a large earthquake, is applied to collect information on destination choices. Data were collected by e-mail back surveys, door-to-door surveys, and surveys in public places (e.g., at shopping malls, public parks, and student dormitories). This study proposes an error component model and a random coefficient model. The random coefficient models capture the heterogeneous responses of respondent while the error component model counts for correlations between destination choices. The results from the proposed disaggregate method are more comprehensive than those from the HAZUS method since it accounts for factors that impact decisions on destination choices.
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Tamima, U., Chouinard, L. (2015). Decision Making Behavior of Earthquake Evacuees: An Application of Discrete Choice Models. In: Kadry, S., El Hami, A. (eds) Numerical Methods for Reliability and Safety Assessment. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-07167-1_28
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-07167-1_28
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