Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

A New Statistical-Empirical Hybrid Based Model to Estimate Seasonal Sea-Level Variation in the Gulf of Paria from River Discharge

  • Chapter
  • First Online:
Remote Sensing and Modeling

Part of the book series: Coastal Research Library ((COASTALRL,volume 9))

  • 2117 Accesses

Abstract

The study presents new insight into the quantitative role of the world’s third largest discharging river, the Orinoco of South America as modulating coastal water levels in the vicinity of its outflow. The case study is in a semi-enclosed sea, the Gulf of Paria, located in the southern extreme of the Caribbean Sea. The discharge – coastal water level relationship has been investigated and the water levels exhibit a high correlation (R2 = 0.92) to the trends in actual discharge. The relationship is non-linear and there is a lower threshold value across the months of the year below which the water levels are characterised by large variability around a mean linear trend showing independence of the Orinoco’s discharge. There is also an upper threshold value where the maximum amplitude of variation is 21.4 cm. The study utilises a vertically integrated 2D numerical modelling suite to execute a series of experiments to ascertain the variation of the coastal water levels from the variation in the river discharge. The other drivers are wind, salinity, oceanic currents and tidal forcing. The results are finally utilised to develop a third order model function to estimate the average monthly river-driven water level in the Gulf of Paria dependent only on the parameter of river discharge.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this chapter

Log in via an institution
Chapter
USD 29.95
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
eBook
USD 129.00
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as EPUB and PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
Softcover Book
USD 169.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Compact, lightweight edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info
Hardcover Book
USD 169.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Durable hardcover edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Institutional subscriptions

Abbreviations

C D :

Drag coefficient

d :

Still water depth (m)

D :

Eddy diffusion coefficient

f :

Coriolis parameter (s−1)

F T ,F s ,F c :

Horizontal diffusion terms

g :

Acceleration due to gravity (m/s2)

h :

Total water depth (m)

H :

Height of Planetary Boundary Layer (m)

\( \hat{H} \) :

Source term due to heat exchange with atmosphere

p :

Pressure (pa)

R :

River discharge

s :

Salinity (psu)

S :

Magnitude of source discharge (m3/s)

t :

Time (s)

T :

Temperature (°C)

x,y,z :

Cartesian coordinates

u,v,w :

Flow velocity components

η :

Surface elevation (m)

ρ :

Density of water (kg/m3)

U:

Wind speed

WL:

Water level

a :

Atmospheric component

h :

Horizontal component

o :

Initial condition (reference value)

s :

Source parameter

v :

Vertical component

References

  • Acharya A, Ryu J (2014) Simple method for streamflow disaggregation. J Hydrologic Eng 19(3):509–519

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Allen PA (1997) Earth surface processes. Blackwell Science Ltd, Oxford

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Antonov JI, Seidov D, Boyer TP, Locarnini RA, Mishonov AV, Garcia HE, Baranova OK, Zweng MM, Johnson DR (2010) World Ocean Atlas 2009, volume 2: salinity. NOAA Atlas NESDIS, Washington, DC, p 69

    Google Scholar 

  • Baocan W, Jian S, Shenliang C (1992) Analysis of seasonal variation along Changjiang Estuary China. In: Woodworth PL, Pugh DT, Deronde JG, Warrick RG, Hannah J (eds) Sea level changes: determination and effects. American Geophysical Union, Washington, DC

    Google Scholar 

  • Bjork G, Olof L, Lars R (2000) Net circulation and salinity variations in an open-ended Swedish Fijord system. Estuaries 26:367–380

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Boisvert WE (1967) Major currents in the North and South Atlantic Oceans between 64°N and 60°S. U.S. Naval oceanographic technical report no. 193. United States Navy, Washington, DC

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Bowles FA, Fleischer P (1985) Orinoco and Amazon River sediment input to the eastern Caribbean Basin. Mar Geol 68:53–72

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Brown EB, Kraus NC (2007) Tips for developing bathymetry grids for coastal modelling systems applications, coastal and hydraulics laboratory engineering technical note ERDC/CHL CHETN-IV-69. United States Army Corps of Engineers, U (ed). U.S. Army Engineer Research and Development Center, Vicksburg

    Google Scholar 

  • Danish Hydraulic Institute, D (2011) Mike 21 and Mike 3 flow model FM hydrodynamic and transport module scientific documentation. Danish Hydraulic Institute, Denmark

    Google Scholar 

  • Dean RG, Walton TL (2010) Wave setup. In: Young KC (ed) Handbook of coastal and ocean engineering. World Scientific, California

    Google Scholar 

  • Environmental Management Authority, E (1998) Trinidad and Tobago: state of the environment 1998 report. Environmental Management Authority, St. Clair

    Google Scholar 

  • Febres-Ortega G, Herrera LE (1976) Caribbean Sea circulation and water mass transports near the Lesser Antilles. Bol Inst Oceanogr Univ Oriente 15:14

    Google Scholar 

  • Froelich PN Jr, Atwood DK, Giese GS (1978) Influence of the Amazon River discharge on surface salinity and dissolved silicate concentration in the Caribbean Sea. Deep-Sea Res II:735–744

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gade HG (1961) On some oceanographic observations in the southeastern Caribbean Sea and the adjacent Atlantic Ocean with special reference to the influence of the Orinoco River. Bol Inst Oceanogr Univ Oriente 1:287–342

    Google Scholar 

  • Galerkin LI (1960) On the physical basis of the forecast of the seasonal variations of sea level in the sea of Japan. Tr Inst Okeanol SSSR 37:73–91 (in Russian) in Lisitzin, E. 1974. Sea level changes. Elsevier Scientific Publishing Co, Amsterdam

    Google Scholar 

  • Gourlay MR (1992) Wave set-up, wave run-up and beach water table: interaction between surf zone hydraulics and groundwater hydraulics. Coast Eng 17:93–144

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hsu SA (1981) Models for estimating offshore winds from onshore meteorological measurements. Bound Layer Meteorol 20:341–351

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hsu SA (1985) Correction of land-based wind data for offshore applications: a further evaluation. J Phys Oceanogr 16:390–394

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hu C, Montgomery ET, Schmitt RW, Muller-Karger FE (2004) The dispersal of the Amazon and Orinoco River water in the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean Sea: observation from space and S-PALACE floats. Deep Sea Res Part II Top Stud Oceanogr 51:1151–1171

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kolker AS, Hameed S (2007) Meteorologically driven trends in sea level rise. Geophys Res Lett 34:L23616

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lewis WM (1988) Primary production in the Orinoco River. Ecology 69:679–692

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lewis WMJ, Saunders JFI (1989) Concentration and transport of dissolved and suspended substances in the Orinoco River. Biogeochemistry 7:203–240

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lisitzin E (1974) Sea level changes, vol 8, Elsevier oceanography series. Elsevier Scientific Publishing Company, Amsterdam

    Google Scholar 

  • Lisitzin E, Pattullo JG (1961) The principal factors influencing the seasonal oscillation of sea level. J Geophys Res 66:845–852

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Loveless J, Debski D, Macleod A (1998) Sea level set-up behind detached breakwaters. In: International conference on coastal engineering, Copenhagen

    Google Scholar 

  • Machado-Allison A (2012) Environmental impact of oil spill in Monagas unprecedented in the history of the country. Universidad Central de Venezuela, Venezuela

    Google Scholar 

  • Mariano AJ, Brown OB (1992) Efficient objective analysis of dynamically heterogeneous and nonstationary fields via the parameter matrix. Deep-Sea Res 39:1255–1271

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mariano AJ, Ryan EH, Perkins BD, Smithers S (1995) The Mariano Global Surface Velocity Analysis 1.0 (MGSVA) U.S. Coast Guard Technical Report. CG-D-34–95

    Google Scholar 

  • Meade RH, Emery KO (1971) Sea level as affected by river runoff, Eastern United States. Science 173:425–428

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Meade RH, Nordin CF Jr, Hernandez DP, Meija A, Godoy JMP (1983) Sediment and water discharge in Rio Orinoco, Venezuela and Colombia. In: Proceedings of second international symposium on river sedimentation. Water Resources and Electric Power Press, Beijing, pp 1134–1144

    Google Scholar 

  • Müller-Karger FE, Mcclain CR, Richardson PL (1988) The dispersal of the Amazon water. Nature 56–59

    Google Scholar 

  • Müller-Karger FE, Mcclain CR, Fisher TR, Esaias WE, Varela R (1989) Pigment distribution in the Caribbean Sea: observations from space. Prog Oceanogr 23:23–64

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Nomitsu T, Okamoto M (1927) The causes of the annual variation of the mean sea level along the Japanese coast. Mem Coll Sci Kyoto Univ 10:125–161

    Google Scholar 

  • Odriozola AL, Varela R, Hu C, Astor Y, Lorenzoni L, Muller-Karger FE (2007) On the absorption of light in the Orinoco River plume. Cont Shelf Res 27:1447–1464

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Parker BB (ed) (1991) Tidal hydrodynamics. Wiley, New York

    Google Scholar 

  • Pattullo J (1966) Seasonal changes in sea level. In: Hill MN (ed) The sea. Inter Science, New York

    Google Scholar 

  • Sánchez-Villagra MR, Aguilera OA, Carlini AA (eds) (2010) Urumaco and Venezuelan paleontology: the fossil record of the Northern Neotropics. Indiana University Press, Bloomington

    Google Scholar 

  • Schot PP, Poot A, Vonk GA, Peeters WHM (2001) A surface water model for the Orinoco River basin. A technical report. Utrecht University

    Google Scholar 

  • Sethuraman S, Raynor GS (1980) Comparison of mean wind speeds and turbulence at a coastal site and offshore location. J Appl Meteorol 19:15–21

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Stockdon HF, Holman RA, Howd PA, Sallenger AH Jr (2006) Empirical parameterization of setup, swash, and runup. Coast Eng 53:573–588

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Svensson C, Jones DA (2004) Dependence between sea surge, river flow and precipitation in south and west Britain. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 8:973–992

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Trifonova E, Demireva D (2003) An investigation of sea level fluctuations in Varna and Bourgas. Proc Inst Oceanol 4:3–9

    Google Scholar 

  • Tsimplis MN, Woodworth PL (1994) The global distribution of the seasonal sea level cycle calculated from coastal tide gauge data. J Geophys Res 99:16031–16039

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • TTMS TATMS (2010) MSL and wind speeds. Service TATM (ed). Ministry of Public Utilities, Government of the Republic of Trinidad and Tobago, Piarco

    Google Scholar 

  • Van Andel TH, Postma H (1954) Recent sediments in the gulf of Paria. Reports of the Orinoco shelf expedition. Verh, der Konink-lijke Nederlandse Akad van Wetensch Afd Natuurkunde, Eerste Reeks 20:244

    Google Scholar 

  • Warne AG, Meade RH, White WA, Guevara EH, Gibeaut J, Smyth RC, Aslan A, Tremblay T (2002) Regional controls on geomorphology, hydrology, and ecosystem integrity in the Orinoco Delta, Venezuela. Geomorphology 44:273–307

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

The author thanks the University of the West Indies, Faculty of Engineering for the resources made available to execute the study. Acknowledgements also to the following organisations and persons for their contributions and guidance: The Global Runoff Data Centre (GRDC), The Trinidad and Tobago Meteorological Service, Dr. Julio Zyserman and the Danish Hydraulic Institute (DHI), Dr. Deborah Villarroel-Lamb, Mr. Nazeer Gopaul, Professor Arthur Mariano for his assistance with direct provision of data, Professors Jae Ryu and Lewis Williams for their guidance on watershed issue resolution.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, The University of the West Indies, St. Augustine Campus, St. Augustine, Trindad and Tobago

    Carol Subrath-Ali

Authors
  1. Carol Subrath-Ali
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Carol Subrath-Ali .

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

  1. Florida Atlantic University, Boca Raton, Florida, USA

    Charles W. Finkl

  2. Coastal Education & Research Foundation, Coconut Creek, Florida, USA

    Christopher Makowski

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

© 2014 Springer International Publishing Switzerland

About this chapter

Cite this chapter

Subrath-Ali, C. (2014). A New Statistical-Empirical Hybrid Based Model to Estimate Seasonal Sea-Level Variation in the Gulf of Paria from River Discharge. In: Finkl, C., Makowski, C. (eds) Remote Sensing and Modeling. Coastal Research Library, vol 9. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-06326-3_9

Download citation

Publish with us

Policies and ethics

Search

Navigation