Energy security is placed at risk by exogenous supply shocks, in particular political crises and conflicts that disrupt resource extraction and transportation. In this paper, a computational model of the security of international crude oil supplies is described, and its output analyzed. The model consists of country agents, linked geographically and by a data-derived oil trade network. Countries stochastically experience crises, with probabilities and durations drawn randomly from data-fitted distributions. The effect of these crises on secure oil supplies is measured globally and by country, and the effect of conflict contagion and spare production capacity are also estimated. The model indicates that Russia, Eastern Europe, and much of the Global South are at the greatest risk of supply shocks, while American producers are at greatest risk of demand shocks. It estimates that conflict contagion decreases energy security slightly, while spare capacity has minimal effect.


Demand Shock Energy Security International Energy Agency Supply Shock Spare Capacity 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.


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Copyright information

© Springer International Publishing Switzerland 2014

Authors and Affiliations

  • David Masad
    • 1
  1. 1.Department of Computational Social ScienceGeorge Mason UniversityFairfaxUSA

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