Cover Your Cough! Quantifying the Benefits of a Localized Healthy Behavior Intervention on Flu Epidemics in Washington DC
We use a synthetic population model of Washington DC, including residents and transients such as tourists and business travelers, to simulate epidemics of influenza-like illnesses. Assuming that the population is vaccinated at the compliance levels reported by the CDC, we show that additionally implementing a policy that encourages healthy behaviors (such as covering your cough and using hand sanitizers) at four major museum locations around the National Mall can lead to very significant reductions in the epidemic. These locations are chosen because there is a high level of mixing between residents and transients. We show that this localized healthy behavior intervention is approximately equivalent to a 46.14% increase in vaccination compliance levels.
Keywordsdisease dynamics intervention strategies synthetic social network transient population
Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.
- 2.Parikh, N., Youssef, M., Swarup, S., Eubank, S.: Modeling the effect of transient populations on epidemics in Washington DC. Sci. Rep. 3, article 3152 (2013)Google Scholar
- 3.Colizza, V., Barrat, A., Barthélemy, M., Vespignani, A.: The role of the airline transportation network in the prediction and predictability of global epidemics. PNAS 103 (2006)Google Scholar
- 4.Colizza, V., Barrat, A., Barthélemy, M., Valleron, A.J., Vespignani, A.: Modeling the worldwide spread of pandemic inuenza: baseline case and containment interventions. PLoS Med. 4 (2007)Google Scholar
- 7.Beckman, R.J., Baggerly, K.A., McKay, M.D.: Creating synthetic baseline populations. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice 30(6), 415–429 (1996)Google Scholar
- 8.Bisset, K.R., Feng, X., Marathe, M., Yardi, S.: Modeling interaction between individuals, social networks and public policy to support public health epidemiology. In: Proc. Winter Simulation Conference, pp. 2020–2031 (2009)Google Scholar