Abstract
Geodetic, gravity and magnetic field changes, produced by mass and stress redistributions accompanying magma migration and accumulation within the volcano edifice, are numerically computed by an integrated elastic 3-D model based on Finite Element Method (FEM). Firstly, comparisons are made between analytical and numerical solutions to validate the numerical model and to estimate the perturbations caused by medium heterogeneity and topographic features. Successively, the integrated numerical procedure was applied to interpret geophysical observations collected at Etna volcano during unrest periods. The obtained results highlight that heterogeneity and topography engender deviations from analytical results in the geophysical changes and, hence, the disregard of these complexities could lead to an inaccurate estimate of source parameters in inversion procedure. The FEM approach allows for considering a picture of a fully 3D model of Etna volcano, which advance the reliability of model-based assessments of geophysical observations. This approach, based on observable data and complemented by physical modeling techniques, makes the step ahead in the volcano hazard assessment and in the understanding of the underlying physics and poses the basis for future developments of scenario forecasting.
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Acknowledgements
Satellite data were provided by ESA, through CAT1- 7926 project. We are grateful to Carl W Gable for giving hints on meshing procedures and to C A Williams for suggestions on FEM developments.
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Currenti, G., Del Negro, C. (2014). Model-Based Assessment of Geophysical Observations: From Numerical Simulations Towards Volcano Hazard Forecasting. In: Fontes, M., Günther, M., Marheineke, N. (eds) Progress in Industrial Mathematics at ECMI 2012. Mathematics in Industry(), vol 19. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-05365-3_11
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-05365-3_11
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