Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Oil Reserves and Peak Oil

  • Chapter
  • First Online:
Key Concepts in Energy

Abstract

The history of estimating oil reserves has proven a history of long-lasting misunderstandings. The split between the environmental perception of depletion and the common man’s view, further contrasted the differences between the standpoints of the scientific and business communities, led to the most controversial topic ever debated within the energy community. While some forewarned that a critical moment for humanity was approaching, others found that all evidence and experience pointed in the opposite direction. This chapter traces the history of this debate from the first oil survey undertaken in the USA in 1909 through to current days. We trace how the accuracy of already known fixed stocks (proven reserves) has dominated all public concerns up until the moment when the peak theory of geophysicist King Hubbert shifted the terms of the discussion and grounding it in the size of the unknown—estimates of resources still undiscovered. The final section provides a review of the state of the art in the oil depletion debate.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this chapter

Log in via an institution
Chapter
USD 29.95
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
eBook
USD 84.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as EPUB and PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
Softcover Book
USD 109.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Compact, lightweight edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info
Hardcover Book
USD 109.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Durable hardcover edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Institutional subscriptions

References

  • Arnold R (1923) Two decades of petroleum geology 1903–1922. Bull Am Assoc Pet Geol 7(6):603–624

    Google Scholar 

  • Alekletta K et al (2010) The peak of the oil age—analyzing the world oil production reference scenario in world energy outlook 2008. Energy Policy 38(2010):1398–1414

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bacon WF, Hamor WA (1916) The American petroleum industry, vol 1. McGraw-Hill, New York

    Google Scholar 

  • Beal CH (1919) The decline and ultimate production of oil wells, with notes on the valuation of oil properties. U. S. Bureau Mines—Government Printing office, Washington

    Google Scholar 

  • Bentley RW, Mannan SA, Wheeler SJ (2007) Assessing the date of the global oil peak: the need to use 2P reserves. Energy Policy 35(12):6364–6382

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bentley RW (2002) Global oil & gas depletion: an overview. Energy Policy 30(3):189–205

    Article  MathSciNet  Google Scholar 

  • Bignell LG (1934) Geophysical prospecting activity in all areas indicates need for additional oil reserves. Oil Gas J 32:52

    Google Scholar 

  • Bowden G (1985) The social construction of validity in estimates of United States crude-oil reserves. Soc Stud Sci 15(2):207–240

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bowker GC (1994) Science on the run information management and industrial geophysics at Schlumberger, 1920–1940. The MIT Press, Cambridge

    Google Scholar 

  • Brown NC (1919) Forest products and their manufacture and use. Wiley, New York

    Google Scholar 

  • Clark JG (1987) Energy and the Federal Government. Fossil fuel policies 1900–1946. University of Illinois Press, Urbana

    Google Scholar 

  • Clarke D (2007) The battle for barrels: peak oil myths and world oil futures. Profile Books, London

    Google Scholar 

  • Cooper JM (1990) Pivotal decades: the United States 1900–1920. Norton, New York

    Google Scholar 

  • Day DT (1909) The petroleum resources of the United States. In: USGG (ed) United States geological survey bulletin 394. Government Printing office, Washington, pp 30–50

    Google Scholar 

  • Decker CE (1920) Studies in minor folds. University of Chicago Press, Chicago

    Google Scholar 

  • Deffeyes KS (2006) Beyond Oil. The view from Hubbert’s peak. Hill and Wang, New York

    Google Scholar 

  • Dennis MA (1985) Drilling for dollars: the making of US petroleum reserve estimates, 1921–25. Soc Stud Sci 15(2):241–265

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Doel RE. (1989) M. King Hubbert interview, Session VII, 27 Jan 1989. Marion King Hubbert: transcript of a recorded Interview, Bethesda, Maryland, 4 Jan–6 Feb 1989. Available via http://www.oilcrisis.com/hubbert/aip/aip_vii.htm. Accessed 12 Feb2013

  • Downey M (2009) Oil 101. Wooden Table Press, New York

    Google Scholar 

  • Dunham WM (1913) Foresees famine in light crude oil. The Natl Petrol News 3:1–2

    Google Scholar 

  • Elster J (2007) Explaining social behavior: more nuts and bolts for the social sciences. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Emmons HE (1921) Geology of petroleum. McGraw-Hill, New-York/London

    Google Scholar 

  • Frederick S, Loewenstein G, O’Donoghue T (2002) Time discounting and time preference: a critical review. J Econ Lit 40(2):351–401

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Forbes RJ, O’Beirne DR (1957) The technical development of Royal Dutch/Shell 1890–1940. E.J. Brill, Leiden

    Google Scholar 

  • Gagnon L (2008) Civilisation and energy payback. Energy Policy 36(9):3317–3322

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Garfias VR, Whetsel RV (1936) Proven oil reserves. Trans Am Inst Mining Metall Eng 118:211–214

    Google Scholar 

  • Grushevenko E, Grushevenko D (2012) Unconventional oil potential tends to change the world oil market. Energy Sci Technol 4(1):68–74

    Google Scholar 

  • Hager D (1923) Hager on geology and the geologists. Oil Gas J 21:91–93

    Google Scholar 

  • Hays SP (1959) Conservation and the gospel of efficiency: the progressive conservation movement, 1890–1920. Harvard University Press, Cambridge

    Google Scholar 

  • Hemmingsen E (2010) At the base of Hubbert’s Peak: grounding the debate on petroleum scarcity. Geoforum 41(4):531–540

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hirsch RL, Bezdec R, Wendling R (2005) Peaking of world oil production: impacts, mitigation and risk management. DOE report, Feb 2005. Available via http://www.netl.doe.gov/publications/others/pdf/Oil_Peaking_NETL.pdf, Accessed 2 April 2013

  • Hotelling H (1931) The economics of exhaustible resources. J Polit Econ 39:137–175

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Horlacher JL (1929) A year in the oil fields. The Kentucky Kernel Press, Lexington

    Google Scholar 

  • Horowitz JK, Carson RT (1990) Discounting statistical lives. J Risk Uncertainty 3(4):403–413

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hubbert MK (1956) Nuclear energy and the fossil fuels. Shell Development Company, Houston

    Google Scholar 

  • Hubbert MK (1966) History of petroleum geology and its bearing upon present and future exploration. Am Assoc Pet Geol Bull 50(12):2504–2518

    Google Scholar 

  • Jakobsson K, Soderbergh B, Hook M, Aleklet K (2009) How reasonable are oil production scenarios from public agencies? Energy Policy 37(11):4809–4818

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Johnson RH, Huntley LG (1916) Principles of oil and gas production. Wiley, New York

    Google Scholar 

  • Laherrere, J (2001) Estimates of oil reserves. In: Paper presented at the EMF/IEA/IEW meeting IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria—June 19, 2001. Available via http://www.oilcrisis.com/laherrere/. Accessed 8 July 2012

  • Lutz C, Lehr U, Wiebe KS (2012) Economic effects of peak oil. Energy Policy 48:829–834

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Madureira NL (2012) The anxiety of abundance: Stanley Jevons and coal scarcity in the nineteenth century. Environ Hist 18(3):395–421

    Article  MathSciNet  Google Scholar 

  • Maugeri L (2004) Oil: never cry wolf—why the petroleum age is far from over. Science 304(21):1114–1115

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Maugeri L (2006) The age of oil: the mythology, history, and future of the world’s most controversial resource. The Lyons Press, Guilford

    Google Scholar 

  • McLaughin GL (1939) The economic significance of oil and gas. In: National Resources Committee (ed) Energy resources and national policy. Government Printing Office, Washington, p 123–236

    Google Scholar 

  • Miller C (2009) The once and future forest service: land-management policies and politics in contemporary America. J Policy Hist 21(1):89–104

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Miller HC, Lindsly BE (1934) Report on petroleum production and development. In: USGS (ed) Hearings before a subcommittee of the Committee on Interstate and Foreign Commerce. Government Printing Office, Washington, Part 2, p 1087–1222

    Google Scholar 

  • Mohr SH, Evans GM (2010) Long term prediction of unconventional oil production. Energy Policy 38(1):265–276

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Nordhaus W (1973) The allocation of energy resources. Brookings Pap Econ Act 4(3):529–576

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Nordhauser N (1979) The quest for stability: domestic oil regulation 1917–1935. Garland Publishing Co., New York

    Google Scholar 

  • Olien DD, Olien RM (1993) Running out of oil: discourse and public policy, 1909–1929. Bus Econ Hist 22(2):36–66

    Google Scholar 

  • Owen EW (1975) Trek of the oil finders: a history of exploration for petroleum. American Association of Petroleum Geologists, Tulsa

    Google Scholar 

  • Penick JL (1968) Progressive politics and conservation: the Ballinger-Pinchot affair. University of Chicago Press, Chicago

    Google Scholar 

  • Requa ML (1918) Methods of Valuing Oil Lands. Bulletin of the American Institute of Mining Engineers (134): 409-428-

    Google Scholar 

  • Petty OS (n.d.) Oil exploration. Handbook of Texas. Online published by the Texas State Historical Association. Available from http://www.tshaonline.org/handbook/online/articles/doo15. Accessed 12 Sept 2011

  • Robertson H (2000) A historic correspondence regarding the introduction of the torsion balance to the United States. Lead Edge 19(6):652–654

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Roosevelt T (1909) Special message from the President of the United States transmitting a report of the National Conservation commission. In: Gannett H (ed) Report of the National Conservation Commission. Government Printing Office, Washington, p 1–9

    Google Scholar 

  • Schulman BJ (2005) Governing nature, nurturing government: resource management and the development of the American State: 1900–1912. J Policy Hist 17(4):375–403

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Schurr SH, Netschert BC (1977) Energy in the American economy 1850–1975: an economic study of its history and prospects, 2nd edn. Greenwood Press, Westport

    Google Scholar 

  • Shulman PA (2003) Science can never demobilize: the United States navy and the petroleum geology. Hist Technol 19(4):365–395

    Article  MathSciNet  Google Scholar 

  • Smith GO (1920) Opportunity for the oil geologists. Oil Gas J 18:36, 74

    Google Scholar 

  • Solow R, Wan F (1976) Extraction costs in the theory of exhaustible resources. Bell J Econ 7:359–370

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sorrell S et al (2010) Global oil depletion: a review of the evidence. Energy Policy 38(9):5290–5295

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Steen HK (2001) The conservation diaries of Gifford Pinchot. Forest History Society, Durham

    Google Scholar 

  • SPE/WPC (2001) Guidelines for the evaluation of petroleum reserves and resources. A supplement to the SPE/WPC petroleum reserves definitions and the SPE/WPC/AAPG petroleum resources definitions. Available via http://www.spe.org/web/store/index.shtml. Accessed 4 Feb 2013

  • Tsoskounoglou M et al (2008) The end of cheap oil: current status and prospects. Energy Policy 36(10):3797–3806

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • USGS (1934) Résumé of geology and occurrence of petroleum in the United States, In: USGS (ed.) Hearings before a subcommittee of the Committee on Interstate and Foreign Commerce. Government Printing Office, Washington, Part 1, p 884–907

    Google Scholar 

  • Villarello JD (1908) Algunas regiones petroliferas de Mexico. Imprenta y Fototipia de la Secretaria de Fomento, Ciudad de Mexico

    Google Scholar 

  • White D (1919) Mr White sees danger of exhaustion. Oil Gas J 17:8–9

    Google Scholar 

  • Williams N (1928) Geophysics big factor on Gulf Coast. Oil Gas J 26:35, 88

    Google Scholar 

  • Williamson HF et al (1968) The American petroleum industry. The age of energy 1899–1959. Northwestern University Press, Evanston

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Instituto Universitario de Lisboa, Lisbon, Portugal

    Nuno Luis Madureira

Authors
  1. Nuno Luis Madureira
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Nuno Luis Madureira .

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

© 2014 Springer International Publishing Switzerland

About this chapter

Cite this chapter

Madureira, N.L. (2014). Oil Reserves and Peak Oil. In: Key Concepts in Energy. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-04978-6_6

Download citation

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-04978-6_6

  • Published:

  • Publisher Name: Springer, Cham

  • Print ISBN: 978-3-319-04977-9

  • Online ISBN: 978-3-319-04978-6

  • eBook Packages: EnergyEnergy (R0)

Publish with us

Policies and ethics

Search

Navigation