Abstract
The system dynamics approach is a holistic way of solving problems in real-time scenarios. The Cross Impact Analysis (CIA) is a system dynamics method that enables the construction of a model relating entities and attributes relevant to a system. Then, the CIA simulates the model construct and observes the changing system status. The CIA permits the integration of policies into the model construct and enables the comparison of the simulated system with the one that is augmented by policies. Thereby, it is possible to observe policy effects on future system status. Here, we describe how CIA is utilized to enhance student enrolment and performance with simulated government policies in two developing countries.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
References
Admassu, K.: Primary school enrollment and progression in ethiopia: family and school factors. In: American Sociological Association Annual Meeting, Boston, 31st July 2008
Akar, H.: Poverty, and schooling in Turkey: a needs assessment study. In: Presentation at Workshop on Complex Societal Problems, Sustainable Living and Development, IAM, METU, Ankara, 13–16 May 2008
Akar, H.: Challenges for schools in communities with internal migration flows. Int. J. Educ. Dev. 30, 263–276 (2010)
Aksel, S., Gun, Z., YlmazIrmak, T., Celenci, B.: Migration and psychological status of adolescents in Turkey. Adolescence 42(167), 589–602 (2007)
Altamirano, M.A., van Daalen, C.E.: A system dynamics model of primary and secondary education in Nicaragua. In: 22nd International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, Oxford, 25–29 July 2004
Baslevent, C., Dayioglu, M.: The effect of squatter housing on income distribution in Urban Turkey. Urban Stud. 42(1), 32–45 (2005)
Benson, H.: Household demand for primary schooling in ethiopia: preliminary findings. In: Annual Meeting of the American Educational Research Association, San Francisco, 18–22 April 1995
Bruns, B., Mingat, A., Ramahatra, R.: Achieving Universal Primary Education by 2015, a Chance for Every Child. The World Bank, Washington, DC (2003)
Goksen, F., Cemalciler, F.: Social capital and cultural distance as predictors of early school dropout: implications for community action for Turkish internal migrants. Int. J. Intercult. Relat. 34,163–175 (2010)
Gordon, T.J., Hayward, H.: Initial experiments with the cross-impact matrix method of forecasting. Futures 1, 100–116 (1968)
Hanushek, E.A., Lavy, V., Kohtaro, H.: Do students care about school quality? Determinants of dropout behavior in developing countries. J. Hum. Cap. 2(1), 69–105 (2008)
Hayashi, A., Tokimatsu, K., Yamamoto, H., Mori, S.: Narrative scenario development based on cross-impact analysis for the evaluation of global-warming mitigation options. Appl. Energy 83(10), 1062–1075 (2006)
Julius, K.: A primer for a new cross-impact language: KSIM. In: Harold, A.L., Murray, T. (eds.) The Delphi Method: Techniques and Applications. Addison-Wesley, Reading (2002)
Kagitcibasi, C., Cemalcilar, Z., Baydar, N.: Children of rural to urban migration: an integrative intervention for adaptation to social change. ISSBD Bull. 1(55),10–14 (2009)
Karadeli, N., Kaya, O., Keskin, B.B.: Dynamic Modeling of Basic Education in Turkey. Senior graduation project, Bogazici university, Turkey (2001)
Kulu, H., Billari, F.: Multilevel analysis of internal migration in a transitional country: the case of Estonia. Reg. Stud. 38(6), 679–696 (2004)
Lane, D.C.: Social theory and system dynamics practice. Eur. J. Oper. Res. 113(3), 501–527 (1999)
Mohapatra, P.K.J., Mandal, P., Bora, M.C.: Introduction to System Dynamics Modeling. Universities Press (India) Limited, Hyderabad (1994)
Pedamallu, C.S.: Externally aided construction of school rooms for primary classes- preparation of project report. Master’s dissertation, Indian Institute of Technology Madras, Chennai (2001)
Pedamallu, C.S., Ozdamar, L., Kropat, E., Weber, G-W.: A system dynamics model for intentional transmission of HIV/AIDS using cross impact analysis. Cent. Eur. J. Oper. Res. (2010). doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10100-010-0183-2
Rena, R.: Factors affecting the enrolment and the retention of students at primary education. Essays Educ. 22, 102–112 (2007)
Sahin, I.: Cultural responsiveness of school curriculum and students’ failure in Turkey. Interchange 34(4), 383–420 (2003)
Serg, T.: School Construction Strategies for Universal Primary Education in Africa. The World Bank, Washington, DC (2009)
Terlou, B., van Kuijk, E., Vennix, J.A.M.: A system dynamics model of efficiency of primary education in Latin America. In: Proceedings of the International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, pp. 578–587 (1991)
Thorleuchter, D., Van den Poel, D., Prinzie, A.: A compared R&D-based and patent-based cross impact analysis for identifying relationships between technologies. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change 77(7),1037–1050 (2010)
Torres, N., Olaya, C.: Tackling the mess: causal-loop conceptualization of solid waste management systems through cross-impact. In: 28th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, Seoul, 25–29 July 2010
Tsui, M.: Family income, home environment, parenting, and mathematics achievement of children in China and the United States. Educ. Urban Soc. 37(3), 336–355 (2005)
Weimer-Jehle, W.: Cross-impact balances: a system-theoretical approach to cross-impact analysis. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change 73(4), 334–361 (2006)
Wu, G.: Application of cross-impact analysis to the relationship between aldehyde dehydrogenase 2 allele and the flusing syndrome. Alcohol Alcoholism 35(1), 55–59 (2000)
Acknowledgements
The authors thank Dr. Hanife Akar (Dept of Educational Sciences, Middle East Technical University), Prof. L. S. Ganesh (Indian Institute of Technology Madras, Chennai, India) for their fruitful discussions. We also wish to thank Mrs. Anupama Pedamallu for helping us with data entry.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2014 Springer International Publishing Switzerland
About this paper
Cite this paper
Pedamallu, C.S., Ozdamar, L., Weber, GW. (2014). On the Use of Cross Impact Analysis for Enhancing Performance in Primary School Education. In: Pinto, A., Zilberman, D. (eds) Modeling, Dynamics, Optimization and Bioeconomics I. Springer Proceedings in Mathematics & Statistics, vol 73. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-04849-9_31
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-04849-9_31
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, Cham
Print ISBN: 978-3-319-04848-2
Online ISBN: 978-3-319-04849-9
eBook Packages: Mathematics and StatisticsMathematics and Statistics (R0)