Skip to main content

On the Use of Cross Impact Analysis for Enhancing Performance in Primary School Education

  • Conference paper
  • First Online:
Modeling, Dynamics, Optimization and Bioeconomics I

Abstract

The system dynamics approach is a holistic way of solving problems in real-time scenarios. The Cross Impact Analysis (CIA) is a system dynamics method that enables the construction of a model relating entities and attributes relevant to a system. Then, the CIA simulates the model construct and observes the changing system status. The CIA permits the integration of policies into the model construct and enables the comparison of the simulated system with the one that is augmented by policies. Thereby, it is possible to observe policy effects on future system status. Here, we describe how CIA is utilized to enhance student enrolment and performance with simulated government policies in two developing countries.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this chapter

Chapter
USD 29.95
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
eBook
USD 129.00
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as EPUB and PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
Hardcover Book
USD 169.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Durable hardcover edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Institutional subscriptions

References

  1. Admassu, K.: Primary school enrollment and progression in ethiopia: family and school factors. In: American Sociological Association Annual Meeting, Boston, 31st July 2008

    Google Scholar 

  2. Akar, H.: Poverty, and schooling in Turkey: a needs assessment study. In: Presentation at Workshop on Complex Societal Problems, Sustainable Living and Development, IAM, METU, Ankara, 13–16 May 2008

    Google Scholar 

  3. Akar, H.: Challenges for schools in communities with internal migration flows. Int. J. Educ. Dev. 30, 263–276 (2010)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  4. Aksel, S., Gun, Z., YlmazIrmak, T., Celenci, B.: Migration and psychological status of adolescents in Turkey. Adolescence 42(167), 589–602 (2007)

    Google Scholar 

  5. Altamirano, M.A., van Daalen, C.E.: A system dynamics model of primary and secondary education in Nicaragua. In: 22nd International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, Oxford, 25–29 July 2004

    Google Scholar 

  6. Baslevent, C., Dayioglu, M.: The effect of squatter housing on income distribution in Urban Turkey. Urban Stud. 42(1), 32–45 (2005)

    Google Scholar 

  7. Benson, H.: Household demand for primary schooling in ethiopia: preliminary findings. In: Annual Meeting of the American Educational Research Association, San Francisco, 18–22 April 1995

    Google Scholar 

  8. Bruns, B., Mingat, A., Ramahatra, R.: Achieving Universal Primary Education by 2015, a Chance for Every Child. The World Bank, Washington, DC (2003)

    Book  Google Scholar 

  9. Goksen, F., Cemalciler, F.: Social capital and cultural distance as predictors of early school dropout: implications for community action for Turkish internal migrants. Int. J. Intercult. Relat. 34,163–175 (2010)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  10. Gordon, T.J., Hayward, H.: Initial experiments with the cross-impact matrix method of forecasting. Futures 1, 100–116 (1968)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  11. Hanushek, E.A., Lavy, V., Kohtaro, H.: Do students care about school quality? Determinants of dropout behavior in developing countries. J. Hum. Cap. 2(1), 69–105 (2008)

    Google Scholar 

  12. Hayashi, A., Tokimatsu, K., Yamamoto, H., Mori, S.: Narrative scenario development based on cross-impact analysis for the evaluation of global-warming mitigation options. Appl. Energy 83(10), 1062–1075 (2006)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  13. Julius, K.: A primer for a new cross-impact language: KSIM. In: Harold, A.L., Murray, T. (eds.) The Delphi Method: Techniques and Applications. Addison-Wesley, Reading (2002)

    Google Scholar 

  14. Kagitcibasi, C., Cemalcilar, Z., Baydar, N.: Children of rural to urban migration: an integrative intervention for adaptation to social change. ISSBD Bull. 1(55),10–14 (2009)

    Google Scholar 

  15. Karadeli, N., Kaya, O., Keskin, B.B.: Dynamic Modeling of Basic Education in Turkey. Senior graduation project, Bogazici university, Turkey (2001)

    Google Scholar 

  16. Kulu, H., Billari, F.: Multilevel analysis of internal migration in a transitional country: the case of Estonia. Reg. Stud. 38(6), 679–696 (2004)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  17. Lane, D.C.: Social theory and system dynamics practice. Eur. J. Oper. Res. 113(3), 501–527 (1999)

    Article  MATH  MathSciNet  Google Scholar 

  18. Mohapatra, P.K.J., Mandal, P., Bora, M.C.: Introduction to System Dynamics Modeling. Universities Press (India) Limited, Hyderabad (1994)

    Google Scholar 

  19. Pedamallu, C.S.: Externally aided construction of school rooms for primary classes- preparation of project report. Master’s dissertation, Indian Institute of Technology Madras, Chennai (2001)

    Google Scholar 

  20. Pedamallu, C.S., Ozdamar, L., Kropat, E., Weber, G-W.: A system dynamics model for intentional transmission of HIV/AIDS using cross impact analysis. Cent. Eur. J. Oper. Res. (2010). doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10100-010-0183-2

  21. Rena, R.: Factors affecting the enrolment and the retention of students at primary education. Essays Educ. 22, 102–112 (2007)

    Google Scholar 

  22. Sahin, I.: Cultural responsiveness of school curriculum and students’ failure in Turkey. Interchange 34(4), 383–420 (2003)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  23. Serg, T.: School Construction Strategies for Universal Primary Education in Africa. The World Bank, Washington, DC (2009)

    Google Scholar 

  24. Terlou, B., van Kuijk, E., Vennix, J.A.M.: A system dynamics model of efficiency of primary education in Latin America. In: Proceedings of the International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, pp. 578–587 (1991)

    Google Scholar 

  25. Thorleuchter, D., Van den Poel, D., Prinzie, A.: A compared R&D-based and patent-based cross impact analysis for identifying relationships between technologies. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change 77(7),1037–1050 (2010)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  26. Torres, N., Olaya, C.: Tackling the mess: causal-loop conceptualization of solid waste management systems through cross-impact. In: 28th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, Seoul, 25–29 July 2010

    Google Scholar 

  27. Tsui, M.: Family income, home environment, parenting, and mathematics achievement of children in China and the United States. Educ. Urban Soc. 37(3), 336–355 (2005)

    Article  MathSciNet  Google Scholar 

  28. Weimer-Jehle, W.: Cross-impact balances: a system-theoretical approach to cross-impact analysis. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change 73(4), 334–361 (2006)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  29. Wu, G.: Application of cross-impact analysis to the relationship between aldehyde dehydrogenase 2 allele and the flusing syndrome. Alcohol Alcoholism 35(1), 55–59 (2000)

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

The authors thank Dr. Hanife Akar (Dept of Educational Sciences, Middle East Technical University), Prof. L. S. Ganesh (Indian Institute of Technology Madras, Chennai, India) for their fruitful discussions. We also wish to thank Mrs. Anupama Pedamallu for helping us with data entry.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Chandra Sekhar Pedamallu .

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

© 2014 Springer International Publishing Switzerland

About this paper

Cite this paper

Pedamallu, C.S., Ozdamar, L., Weber, GW. (2014). On the Use of Cross Impact Analysis for Enhancing Performance in Primary School Education. In: Pinto, A., Zilberman, D. (eds) Modeling, Dynamics, Optimization and Bioeconomics I. Springer Proceedings in Mathematics & Statistics, vol 73. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-04849-9_31

Download citation

Publish with us

Policies and ethics