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USSDM – Urban Spatial Scenario Design Modelling

Chapter
Part of the Future City book series (FUCI, volume 4)

Abstract

Climate change, population growth and expansion of settlement areas are among the major challenges that African cities are facing. The aim of the study was to model growth of settlement areas under different scenarios of population density and flood protection to support development of strategies for urban development for risk reduction and protection of green areas which deliver vital ecosystem services for the future city.

The GIS-based USSDM – Urban Spatial Scenario Design Modelling approach – was developed and applied to simulate the likely patterns of settlement area increase in Dar es Salaam. The model is based on cellular automata principles and further developed as a participatory design tool for urban planners with strong involvement of stakeholders and experts. Specific features are transparency of model settings, a user friendly interface and easy adjustment of model parameters to respond to different assumptions on urban growth conditions as well as fast simulation runs.

According to USSDM scenario simulations, higher population density settings could minimise the future settlement expansion of Dar es Salaam by up to 5,000 ha until 2025, corresponding to approximately 8 % of the farmland area in 2008. Preventing future expansion of settlement areas into the flood prone areas would significantly reduce exposure of the human population to flooding. Recommendations for strategic development of a multifunctional urban green infrastructure planning in African cities are made.

Keywords

Urban growth Urban planning Urban green Scenario modelling Dar es Salaam 

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Copyright information

© Springer International Publishing Switzerland 2015

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Chair for Strategic Landscape Planning and ManagementTechnical University of Munich (TUM)FreisingGermany

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