Advertisement

Vulnerability of Built Environment to Flooding in African Cities

Chapter
Part of the Future City book series (FUCI, volume 4)

Abstract

Urban built structures and lifelines in African cities are particularly vulnerable to extreme weather-related events such as flooding. This chapter provides an overview of the activities and the findings related to the vulnerability to flooding of the urban built environment in the context of the CLUVA project. First, the urban hotspots to flooding for the built structures and the lifelines are identified for three African case study cities. In the next step, a probabilistic methodology is employed in order to perform micro-scale evaluation of building vulnerability and risk to flooding for the case study city of Dar es Salaam based on historical rainfall data. This methodology is developed specifically for vulnerability assessments based on incomplete knowledge and relies on various data-gathering techniques such as orthophoto boundary recognition, field surveys and laboratory tests. The micro-scale evaluation of the building vulnerability is also performed using rainfall data for a projected 1-year interval in 2050. The results in terms of economic loss and number of people affected are discussed and compared to the evaluation performed based on historical rainfall data. In this comparison, the negative effect of urbanisation on flooding risk is emphasised. The findings presented in this chapter can be translated into strategic adaptive measures for urban structures and lifelines to flooding.

Keywords

Africa Flood-prone Physical vulnerability Fragility Risk assessment 

Notes

Acknowledgements and Data Sources

This work was supported in part by the European Commission’s Seventh Framework Program Climate Change and Urban Vulnerability in Africa (CLUVA), FP7-ENV-2010, Grant No. 265137. This support is gratefully acknowledged. The authors gratefully acknowledge the precious help of Prof. F. De Paola, Prof. M. Giugni and M. E. Topa for providing the rainfall curves, the inundation profiles and the TWI maps for the three case study cities considered. Moreover, the authors would like to gratefully acknowledge Dr. E. Bucchignani and the rest of the CMCC team for providing the Climate Projections for RCP 8.5 Scenario. The authors would like to acknowledge also the precious help of Prof. Kumelachew Yeshitela, Alemu Nebebe, Dr. Riziki Shemdoe, Dr. Deusdedit Kibassa, Dr. Sarah Lindley, Dr. Gina Cavan, Dr. Andreas Printz and Florian Renner for providing the Urban Morphology types for Addis Ababa and Dar es Salaam. Last but not least, the authors would like to acknowledge S. Carozza for his invaluable work in developing the software VISK.

References

  1. Bellucci A, Bucchignani E, Gualdi S, Mercogliano P, Montesarchio M, Scoccimarro E (2012) Data for global climate simulations available for downscaling. Available: http://www.cluva.eu/deliverables/CLUVA_D1.1.pdf. Accessed 9 July 2014
  2. Cavan G, Lindley S, Yeshitela K, Nebebe A, Woldegerima T, Shemdoe R, Kibassa D, Pauleit S, Renner R, Printz A, Buchta K, Coly A, Sall F, Ndour NM, Ouédraogo Y, Samari BS, Sankara BT, Feumba RA, Ngapgue JN, Ngoumo MT, Tsalefac M, Tonye E (2012) Green infrastructure maps for selected case studies and a report with an urban green infrastructure mapping methodology adapted to African cities. Available: http://www.cluva.eu/deliverables/CLUVA_D2.7.pdf. Accessed 9 July 2014
  3. Connolly RD, Schirmer J, Dunn PK (1998) A daily rainfall disaggregation model. Agric For Meteorol 92:105–117CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  4. CRED, Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (2012) Disaster data: a balanced perspective. Available: http://www.cred.be/publications. Accessed 9 July 2014
  5. De Risi R (2013) A probabilistic bi-scale framework for urban flood risk assessment. PhD dissertation, Department of Structures for Engineering and Architecture, University of Naples Federico II, NaplesGoogle Scholar
  6. De Risi R, Jalayer F (2013) Identification of hotspots vulnerability of adobe houses, sewer systems and road networks. Available: http://www.cluva.eu/deliverables/CLUVA_D2.1.pdf. Accessed 9 July 2014
  7. De Risi R, Jalayer F, De Paola F, Iervolino I, Giugni M, Topa ME, Mbuya E, Kyessi A, Manfredi G, Gasparini P (2013a) Flood risk assessment for informal settlements. Nat Hazards 69(1):1003–1032. doi: 10.1007/s11069-013-0749-0 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  8. De Risi R, Jalayer F, Iervolino I, Manfredi G, Carozza S (2013b) VISK: a GIS-compatible platform for micro-scale assessment of flooding risk in urban areas. In: Papadrakis M, Papadopoulos V, Plevris V (eds) COMPDYN, 4th ECCOMAS thematic conference on computational methods in structural dynamics and earthquake engineering, Kos Island, Greece, 12–14 June 2013Google Scholar
  9. FLO-2D Software, Inc (2004) FLO-2D® user’s manual, Nutrioso, Arizona. http://www.flo-2.com. Accessed 9 July 2014
  10. Gill SE, Handley JF, Ennos AR, Pauleit S, Theuray N, Lindley SJ (2008) Characterising the urban environment of UK cities and towns: a template for landscape planning. Landsc Urban Plan 87:210–222CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  11. Giugni M, Adamo P, Capuano P, De Paola F, Di Ruocco A, Giordano S, Iavazzo P, Sellerino M, Terracciano S, Topa ME (2012) Hazard scenarios for test cities using available data. Available: http://www.cluva.eu/deliverables/CLUVA_D1.2.pdf. Accessed 9 July 2014
  12. Gualdi S, Somot L, Li L, Artale V, Adani M, Bellucci A, Braun A, Calmanti S, Carillo A, Dell’aquila A, Deque M, Dubois C, Elizade A, Harzallah A, Jacob D, L’hévéder D, May W, Oddo P, Ruti P, Sanna A, Sannino G, Scoccimarro E, Savault F, Navarra A (2013) The CIRCE simulations: regional climate change projections with realistic representation of the Mediterranean sea. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 94:65–81CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  13. Güntner A, Olsson J, Calver A, Gannon B (2001) Cascade-based disaggregation of continuous rainfall time series: the influence of climate. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 5:145–164CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  14. IPCC (2007) Climate Change 2007: synthesis report. In: Core Writing Team, Pachauri RK, Reisinger A (eds) Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, 104 ppGoogle Scholar
  15. Jalayer F, De Risi R, Elefante L, Manfredi G (2013a) Robust fragility assessment using Bayesian parameter estimation. In: Adam C, Heuer R, Lenhardt W, Schranz C (eds) Vienna congress on recent advances in earthquake engineering and structural dynamics 2013 (VEESD 2013), Paper No. 503, 28–30 August 2013, Vienna, AustriaGoogle Scholar
  16. Jalayer F, De Risi R, Manfredi G, De Paola F, Topa ME, Giugni M, Bucchignani E, Mbuya E, Kyessi A, Gasparini P (2013b) From climate predictions to flood risk assessment for a portfolio of structures. In: 11th international conference on structural safety & reliability, ICOSSAR 2013. Columbia University, New York, 16–20 June 2013Google Scholar
  17. Jalayer F, De Risi R, De Paola F, Giugni M, Manfredi G, Gasparini P, Topa ME, Nebyou Y, Yeshitela K, Nebebe A, Cavan G, Lindley S, Printz A, Renner F (2014) Probabilistic GIS-based method for delineation of flood-prone areas and identification of urban hotspots. Nat Hazards 73:975–1001Google Scholar
  18. Manfreda S, Sole A, Fiorentino M (2008) Can the basin morphology alone provide an insight into floodplain delineation? WIT Trans Ecol Environ 118:47–56CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  19. Manfreda S, Di Leo M, Sole A (2011) Detection of flood-prone areas using digital elevation models. J Hydrol Eng 16:781–790CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  20. MapAction (2011) Burkina Faso: flooding in Ouagadougou as of 03 Sept 09. http://www.mapaction.org/map-catalogue/mapdetail/1719.html. Accessed 9 July 2014
  21. Mockus V (1972) National engineering handbook, section 4, hydrology. US Soil Conservation Service, Washington, DCGoogle Scholar
  22. NBS, National Bureau of Statistics (2006) The 2002 population and housing census, analytical report, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. Available: http://www.nbs.go.tz/projections/dsm_projections.pdf. Accessed 9 July 2014
  23. O’Brien JS, Julien PY, Fullerton WT (1993) Two-dimensional water flood and mudflow simulation. J Hydraul Eng 119(2):244–261CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  24. Olsson J (1998) Evaluation of a scaling cascade model for temporal rain-fall disaggregation. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci Discuss 2:19–30CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  25. Pauleit S, Duhme F (2000) Assessing the environmental performance of land cover types for urban planning. Landsc Urban Plan 52:1–20CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  26. Qin CZ, Zhu AX, Pei T, Li BL, Scholten T, Behrens T, Zhou CH (2011) An approach to computing topographic wetness index based on maximum downslope gradient. Precis Agric 12:32–43CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  27. Rebora N, Ferraris L, Vonhardenberg J, Provenzale A (2006) RainFARM: rainfall downscaling by a filtered autoregressive model. J Hydrometeorol 7:724–738CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  28. Rockel B, Will A, Hense A (2008) The regional climate model COSMO-CLM (CCLM). Meteorol Z 17:347–348CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  29. UN-Habitat (2009) Slums: levels and trends, 1990–2005. Monitoring the millennium development goals slum target. Available: http://www.unhabitat.org/downloads/docs/9179_33168_Slum_of_the_World_levels_and_trends.pdf. Accessed 9 July 2014
  30. UN-Habitat (2010) State of the world’s cities 2010/2011 – cities for all: bridging the urban divide. Available:         http://www.unhabitat.org/pmss/listItemDetails.aspx?publicationID=2917. Accessed 9 July 2014
  31. Vega C (2011) Review of the IFRC-led shelter cluster Burkina Faso September 2009 floods response. Available: http://www.ifrc.org/docs/Evaluations/Evaluations2011/Africa/Burkina%20Faso%20Shelter%20Cluster%20Review%20(2).pdf. Accessed 9 July 2014
  32. WCRP (2008) World climate research programme, CMIP5 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project [Online]. Available: http://cmip-pcmdi.llnl.gov/cmip5/. Accessed 9 July 2014

Copyright information

© Springer International Publishing Switzerland 2015

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Center for the Analysis and Monitoring of Environmental Risk (AMRA), ScarlNaplesItaly
  2. 2.Department of Structures for Engineering and ArchitectureUniversity of Naples Federico IINaplesItaly
  3. 3.Institute of Human Settlements StudiesArdhi UniversityDar es SalaamTanzania
  4. 4.Ethiopian Institute of Architecture, Building Construction and City DevelopmentAddis Ababa UniversityAddis AbabaEthiopia

Personalised recommendations