Abstract
Urban built structures and lifelines in African cities are particularly vulnerable to extreme weather-related events such as flooding. This chapter provides an overview of the activities and the findings related to the vulnerability to flooding of the urban built environment in the context of the CLUVA project. First, the urban hotspots to flooding for the built structures and the lifelines are identified for three African case study cities. In the next step, a probabilistic methodology is employed in order to perform micro-scale evaluation of building vulnerability and risk to flooding for the case study city of Dar es Salaam based on historical rainfall data. This methodology is developed specifically for vulnerability assessments based on incomplete knowledge and relies on various data-gathering techniques such as orthophoto boundary recognition, field surveys and laboratory tests. The micro-scale evaluation of the building vulnerability is also performed using rainfall data for a projected 1-year interval in 2050. The results in terms of economic loss and number of people affected are discussed and compared to the evaluation performed based on historical rainfall data. In this comparison, the negative effect of urbanisation on flooding risk is emphasised. The findings presented in this chapter can be translated into strategic adaptive measures for urban structures and lifelines to flooding.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Notes
- 1.
Note that we have not included the 84th percentile for the TWI threshold. This is done because the areal extent of the flood-prone areas corresponding to the 84th percentile of the TWI threshold is going to be much smaller than those corresponding to 50th and 16th percentiles.
- 2.
Note that the differences in risk between various households are only due to differences in the hydraulic profile between different points on the map and do not reflect variations in the quality of construction between various houses. This is because the same fragility curve is used in order to characterise the vulnerability to flooding for the houses in this neighbourhood.
References
Bellucci A, Bucchignani E, Gualdi S, Mercogliano P, Montesarchio M, Scoccimarro E (2012) Data for global climate simulations available for downscaling. Available: http://www.cluva.eu/deliverables/CLUVA_D1.1.pdf. Accessed 9 July 2014
Cavan G, Lindley S, Yeshitela K, Nebebe A, Woldegerima T, Shemdoe R, Kibassa D, Pauleit S, Renner R, Printz A, Buchta K, Coly A, Sall F, Ndour NM, Ouédraogo Y, Samari BS, Sankara BT, Feumba RA, Ngapgue JN, Ngoumo MT, Tsalefac M, Tonye E (2012) Green infrastructure maps for selected case studies and a report with an urban green infrastructure mapping methodology adapted to African cities. Available: http://www.cluva.eu/deliverables/CLUVA_D2.7.pdf. Accessed 9 July 2014
Connolly RD, Schirmer J, Dunn PK (1998) A daily rainfall disaggregation model. Agric For Meteorol 92:105–117
CRED, Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (2012) Disaster data: a balanced perspective. Available: http://www.cred.be/publications. Accessed 9 July 2014
De Risi R (2013) A probabilistic bi-scale framework for urban flood risk assessment. PhD dissertation, Department of Structures for Engineering and Architecture, University of Naples Federico II, Naples
De Risi R, Jalayer F (2013) Identification of hotspots vulnerability of adobe houses, sewer systems and road networks. Available: http://www.cluva.eu/deliverables/CLUVA_D2.1.pdf. Accessed 9 July 2014
De Risi R, Jalayer F, De Paola F, Iervolino I, Giugni M, Topa ME, Mbuya E, Kyessi A, Manfredi G, Gasparini P (2013a) Flood risk assessment for informal settlements. Nat Hazards 69(1):1003–1032. doi:10.1007/s11069-013-0749-0
De Risi R, Jalayer F, Iervolino I, Manfredi G, Carozza S (2013b) VISK: a GIS-compatible platform for micro-scale assessment of flooding risk in urban areas. In: Papadrakis M, Papadopoulos V, Plevris V (eds) COMPDYN, 4th ECCOMAS thematic conference on computational methods in structural dynamics and earthquake engineering, Kos Island, Greece, 12–14 June 2013
FLO-2D Software, Inc (2004) FLO-2D® user’s manual, Nutrioso, Arizona. http://www.flo-2.com. Accessed 9 July 2014
Gill SE, Handley JF, Ennos AR, Pauleit S, Theuray N, Lindley SJ (2008) Characterising the urban environment of UK cities and towns: a template for landscape planning. Landsc Urban Plan 87:210–222
Giugni M, Adamo P, Capuano P, De Paola F, Di Ruocco A, Giordano S, Iavazzo P, Sellerino M, Terracciano S, Topa ME (2012) Hazard scenarios for test cities using available data. Available: http://www.cluva.eu/deliverables/CLUVA_D1.2.pdf. Accessed 9 July 2014
Gualdi S, Somot L, Li L, Artale V, Adani M, Bellucci A, Braun A, Calmanti S, Carillo A, Dell’aquila A, Deque M, Dubois C, Elizade A, Harzallah A, Jacob D, L’hévéder D, May W, Oddo P, Ruti P, Sanna A, Sannino G, Scoccimarro E, Savault F, Navarra A (2013) The CIRCE simulations: regional climate change projections with realistic representation of the Mediterranean sea. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 94:65–81
Güntner A, Olsson J, Calver A, Gannon B (2001) Cascade-based disaggregation of continuous rainfall time series: the influence of climate. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 5:145–164
IPCC (2007) Climate Change 2007: synthesis report. In: Core Writing Team, Pachauri RK, Reisinger A (eds) Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, 104 pp
Jalayer F, De Risi R, Elefante L, Manfredi G (2013a) Robust fragility assessment using Bayesian parameter estimation. In: Adam C, Heuer R, Lenhardt W, Schranz C (eds) Vienna congress on recent advances in earthquake engineering and structural dynamics 2013 (VEESD 2013), Paper No. 503, 28–30 August 2013, Vienna, Austria
Jalayer F, De Risi R, Manfredi G, De Paola F, Topa ME, Giugni M, Bucchignani E, Mbuya E, Kyessi A, Gasparini P (2013b) From climate predictions to flood risk assessment for a portfolio of structures. In: 11th international conference on structural safety & reliability, ICOSSAR 2013. Columbia University, New York, 16–20 June 2013
Jalayer F, De Risi R, De Paola F, Giugni M, Manfredi G, Gasparini P, Topa ME, Nebyou Y, Yeshitela K, Nebebe A, Cavan G, Lindley S, Printz A, Renner F (2014) Probabilistic GIS-based method for delineation of flood-prone areas and identification of urban hotspots. Nat Hazards 73:975–1001
Manfreda S, Sole A, Fiorentino M (2008) Can the basin morphology alone provide an insight into floodplain delineation? WIT Trans Ecol Environ 118:47–56
Manfreda S, Di Leo M, Sole A (2011) Detection of flood-prone areas using digital elevation models. J Hydrol Eng 16:781–790
MapAction (2011) Burkina Faso: flooding in Ouagadougou as of 03 Sept 09. http://www.mapaction.org/map-catalogue/mapdetail/1719.html. Accessed 9 July 2014
Mockus V (1972) National engineering handbook, section 4, hydrology. US Soil Conservation Service, Washington, DC
NBS, National Bureau of Statistics (2006) The 2002 population and housing census, analytical report, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. Available: http://www.nbs.go.tz/projections/dsm_projections.pdf. Accessed 9 July 2014
O’Brien JS, Julien PY, Fullerton WT (1993) Two-dimensional water flood and mudflow simulation. J Hydraul Eng 119(2):244–261
Olsson J (1998) Evaluation of a scaling cascade model for temporal rain-fall disaggregation. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci Discuss 2:19–30
Pauleit S, Duhme F (2000) Assessing the environmental performance of land cover types for urban planning. Landsc Urban Plan 52:1–20
Qin CZ, Zhu AX, Pei T, Li BL, Scholten T, Behrens T, Zhou CH (2011) An approach to computing topographic wetness index based on maximum downslope gradient. Precis Agric 12:32–43
Rebora N, Ferraris L, Vonhardenberg J, Provenzale A (2006) RainFARM: rainfall downscaling by a filtered autoregressive model. J Hydrometeorol 7:724–738
Rockel B, Will A, Hense A (2008) The regional climate model COSMO-CLM (CCLM). Meteorol Z 17:347–348
UN-Habitat (2009) Slums: levels and trends, 1990–2005. Monitoring the millennium development goals slum target. Available: http://www.unhabitat.org/downloads/docs/9179_33168_Slum_of_the_World_levels_and_trends.pdf. Accessed 9 July 2014
UN-Habitat (2010) State of the world’s cities 2010/2011 – cities for all: bridging the urban divide. Available:         http://www.unhabitat.org/pmss/listItemDetails.aspx?publicationID=2917. Accessed 9 July 2014
Vega C (2011) Review of the IFRC-led shelter cluster Burkina Faso September 2009 floods response. Available: http://www.ifrc.org/docs/Evaluations/Evaluations2011/Africa/Burkina%20Faso%20Shelter%20Cluster%20Review%20(2).pdf. Accessed 9 July 2014
WCRP (2008) World climate research programme, CMIP5 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project [Online]. Available: http://cmip-pcmdi.llnl.gov/cmip5/. Accessed 9 July 2014
Acknowledgements and Data Sources
This work was supported in part by the European Commission’s Seventh Framework Program Climate Change and Urban Vulnerability in Africa (CLUVA), FP7-ENV-2010, Grant No. 265137. This support is gratefully acknowledged. The authors gratefully acknowledge the precious help of Prof. F. De Paola, Prof. M. Giugni and M. E. Topa for providing the rainfall curves, the inundation profiles and the TWI maps for the three case study cities considered. Moreover, the authors would like to gratefully acknowledge Dr. E. Bucchignani and the rest of the CMCC team for providing the Climate Projections for RCP 8.5 Scenario. The authors would like to acknowledge also the precious help of Prof. Kumelachew Yeshitela, Alemu Nebebe, Dr. Riziki Shemdoe, Dr. Deusdedit Kibassa, Dr. Sarah Lindley, Dr. Gina Cavan, Dr. Andreas Printz and Florian Renner for providing the Urban Morphology types for Addis Ababa and Dar es Salaam. Last but not least, the authors would like to acknowledge S. Carozza for his invaluable work in developing the software VISK.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2015 Springer International Publishing Switzerland
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Jalayer, F., De Risi, R., Kyessi, A., Mbuya, E., Yonas, N. (2015). Vulnerability of Built Environment to Flooding in African Cities. In: Pauleit, S., et al. Urban Vulnerability and Climate Change in Africa. Future City, vol 4. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-03982-4_3
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-03982-4_3
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, Cham
Print ISBN: 978-3-319-03984-8
Online ISBN: 978-3-319-03982-4
eBook Packages: EngineeringEngineering (R0)