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Modelling of Disaster Spreading Dynamics

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High-Performance Computing Infrastructure for South East Europe's Research Communities

Part of the book series: Modeling and Optimization in Science and Technologies ((MOST,volume 2))

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Abstract

Natural hazards are significant problem that every year cause important loses. We report on both theoretical models and simulations aimed at better understanding of disaster spreading in various networks. The structure of the networks in this work is obtained either through neighbor analysis in real space or using models which reproduce generic features of real networks (i.e., power, telecommunication, or road networks). Our investigations are focused on the understanding of interaction between network structure and disaster spreading mechanism. The probability that fire will propagate through fire protection strip is investigated and a model is introduced based on finite-size considerations in percolation theory. Also, the uncertainty in prediction of fire propagation rate due to the local inhomogeneities of the vegetation cover is investigated. Finally, uncertainty in cascade failures of network infrastructure is analyzed for a model where edges have limited capacity. The importance of the results for disaster prevention and control is discussed as well.

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Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Scientific Computing Laboratory, Institute of Physics Belgrade, University of Belgrade, Pregrevica 118, 11080, Belgrade, Serbia

    Igor Stanković, Milan Žeželj, Jelena Smiljanić & Aleksandar Belić

Authors
  1. Igor Stanković
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  2. Milan Žeželj
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  3. Jelena Smiljanić
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  4. Aleksandar Belić
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Igor Stanković .

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

  1. Physics and Nuclear Engineering, Horia Hulubei National Institute, Magurele, Romania

    Mihnea Dulea

  2. Bulgarian Academy of Sciences (IICT-BAS), Institute of Information and Communication Technologies, Sofia, Bulgaria

    Aneta Karaivanova

  3. Hellenic Centre for Marine Research (IMBBC-HCMR), Institute of Marine Biology, Biotechnology and Aquacultures, Heraklion, Crete, Greece

    Anastasis Oulas

  4. GRNET S.A. Greek Research & Technology Network, Athens, Greece

    Ioannis Liabotis

  5. University of Belgrade (IPB-UOB) Institute of Physics Belgrade, Belgrade, Serbia

    Danica Stojiljkovic

  6. GRNET S.A. Greek Research & Technology Network, Athens, Greece

    Ognjen Prnjat

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Stanković, I., Žeželj, M., Smiljanić, J., Belić, A. (2014). Modelling of Disaster Spreading Dynamics. In: Dulea, M., Karaivanova, A., Oulas, A., Liabotis, I., Stojiljkovic, D., Prnjat, O. (eds) High-Performance Computing Infrastructure for South East Europe's Research Communities. Modeling and Optimization in Science and Technologies, vol 2. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-01520-0_4

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-01520-0_4

  • Publisher Name: Springer, Cham

  • Print ISBN: 978-3-319-01519-4

  • Online ISBN: 978-3-319-01520-0

  • eBook Packages: EngineeringEngineering (R0)

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