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Precipitation in the Past Millennium in Europe—Extension to Roman Times

  • Juan Jose Gómez-Navarro
  • Johannes P. Werner
  • Sebastian Wagner
  • Eduardo Zorita
  • Jürg Luterbacher
Chapter
Part of the SpringerBriefs in Earth System Sciences book series (BRIEFSEARTHSYST)

Abstract

This project aimed at describing the evolution of precipitation and its variability over Europe and the Mediterranean over the last two millennia. We present results from dynamical downscaling, showing the added value of regional climate models in the paleoclimate context. The regional models improve the representation of precipitation patterns and variability compared to the raw global climate model output and indicate periods with warmer/drier and colder/wetter summer conditions throughout the last two millennia, including for instance the Medieval Climate Anomaly and the Little Ice Age. Additionally, based on the regional simulations pseudoproxies are generated to test the analog method and Bayesian inference. The application of the Bayesian and analog methods to pseudoproxies show reasonable skill and can be used as a statistical tools for the reconstruction of hydrological-sensitive proxy data and might be appropriate methods to be applied to real proxies in the future.

Keywords

Natural climate variability Late holocene Regional climate modelling Bayesian hierarchical modelling Precipitation reconstructions Changes in hydrological cycle 

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Copyright information

© The Author(s) 2015

Authors and Affiliations

  • Juan Jose Gómez-Navarro
    • 3
  • Johannes P. Werner
    • 2
  • Sebastian Wagner
    • 1
  • Eduardo Zorita
    • 1
  • Jürg Luterbacher
    • 2
  1. 1.Institute for Coastal ResearchHelmholtz-Zentrum GeesthachtGeesthachtGermany
  2. 2.Department of GeographyUniversity of GiessenGiessenGermany
  3. 3.Climate and Environmental PhysicsPhysics Institute and Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of BernBernSwitzerland

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