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Chaotic Analysis of the GDP Time Series

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Nostradamus 2013: Prediction, Modeling and Analysis of Complex Systems

Part of the book series: Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing ((AISC,volume 210))

Abstract

The goal of this paper is to analyze the Czech Gross domestic product (GDP) and to find chaos in the Czech GDP. At first we will estimate the time delay and the embedding dimension, which is needed for the Lyapunov exponent estimation and for the phase space reconstruction. Subsequently we will compute the largest Lyapunov exponent, which is one of the important indicators of chaos. Then we will calculate the 0-1 test for chaos. Finally we will compute the Hurst exponent by Rescaled Range analysis and by dispersional analysis. The Hurst exponent is a numerical estimate of the predictability of a time series. In the end we will display a phase portrait of detrended GDP time series. The results indicated that chaotic behaviors obviously exist in GDP.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. University of Pardubice, Pardubice, Czech Republic

    Radko Kříž

Authors
  1. Radko Kříž
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Correspondence to Radko Kříž .

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

  1. Faculty of Electrical Eng. & Comp. Sci, Department of Computer Science, VŠB-TUO, 17. listopadu 15, Ostrava-Poruba, 708 33, Czech Republic

    Ivan Zelinka

  2. , Department of Electronic Engineering, City University of Hong Kong, 83 Tat Chee Avenue, Kowloon, China, People's Republic

    Guanrong Chen

  3. , Institute of Physical, University of Tuebingen, Auf der Morgenstelle 8, Tuebingen, 72076, Germany

    Otto E. Rössler

  4. Faculty of Electrical Eng. & Comp. Sci., Department of Computer Science, VŠB-TUO, 17. listopadu 15, Ostrava-Poruba, 708 33, Czech Republic

    Vaclav Snasel

  5. (MIR Labs), Scientific Network for Innovation, Machine Intelligence Research Labs, Auburn, 98071, Washington, USA

    Ajith Abraham

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Kříž, R. (2013). Chaotic Analysis of the GDP Time Series. In: Zelinka, I., Chen, G., Rössler, O., Snasel, V., Abraham, A. (eds) Nostradamus 2013: Prediction, Modeling and Analysis of Complex Systems. Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing, vol 210. Springer, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-00542-3_36

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-00542-3_36

  • Publisher Name: Springer, Heidelberg

  • Print ISBN: 978-3-319-00541-6

  • Online ISBN: 978-3-319-00542-3

  • eBook Packages: EngineeringEngineering (R0)

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