Abstract
This study presents a big data-driven estimate of John Naisbitt’s 12 megatrends and global economic growth. Empirical assessments and statistical monitoring analyses are presented for the years 2004–2021. The study assesses the intensity of megatrends and the direction of megatrend development based on big data from Google Trends. The study also presents a correlation analysis of the relationship between the 12 megatrend variables and global economic growth (GDP PPP). Half of the trends (N = 6) are on an upward trend, one-third of them (N = 4) are declining, and the remaining two trends follow an irregular path. The analysis of megatrends also reveals significant popularity differences between the trends. Importantly, megatrends are not stable entities, and unexpected events such as a pandemic or economic crisis appear to have a significant impact on them. Megatrends also have strong positive or negative interlinkages with each other.
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Acknowledgments
Research Director Jari Kaivo-oja is a researcher at the Strategic Research Council of the Academy of Finland, in the Manufacturing 4.0 project. The project Manufacturing 4.0 has received funding from the Finnish Strategic Research Council [Grant number 313395].
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Kaivo-oja, J., Santonen, T. (2023). Global Megatrends and Global GDP in 2004–2021: An Empirical Big Data Look at John Naisbitt’s 12 Key Global Megatrend Variables and Global GDP PPP. In: Uden, L., Ting, IH. (eds) Knowledge Management in Organisations. KMO 2023. Communications in Computer and Information Science, vol 1825. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-34045-1_15
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