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Uncertainty Quantification and Runtime Monitoring Using Environment-Aware Digital Twins

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Leveraging Applications of Formal Methods, Verification and Validation: Tools and Trends (ISoLA 2020)

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Abstract

A digital twin for a Cyber-Physical System includes a simulation model that predicts how a physical system should behave. We show how to quantify and characterise violation events for a given safety property for the physical system. The analysis uses the digital twin to inform a runtime monitor that checks whether the noise and violations observed fall within expected statistical distributions. The results allow engineers to determine the best system configuration through what-if analysis. We illustrate our approach with a case study of an agricultural vehicle.

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Notes

  1. 1.

    In practice, there may be many sub-components of each of the controller, plant, and environment, elements, and they may have complex interactions.

  2. 2.

    Some terminology. Kinematics is the space of all possible configurations of a system at one time without considering the forces acting on the system. For example, invariants between state variables that follow from conservation laws. Dynamics is how configurations change as a function of time, due to the forces acting on the system.

  3. 3.

    The term “bicycle model” is used because the equations assume that the angle of each front wheel is the same, as happens with vehicles that have only one front wheel. In practice, the angle between the two front wheels differs and the difference is proportional to the distance between them (as in Ackermann steering geometry).

  4. 4.

    We assume that the vehicle moving at a constant speed describes a circle about its forward travelling frame of reference. In reality, steering is more complicated than this. It depends on whether the vehicle is front or rear-wheel driven; whether the front or rear-wheels steer the vehicle; what particular steering geometry is present; what the tyre characteristics are; and whether there are differential axles. A standard configuration is for the vehicle to have front-wheel steered driving wheels with Ackermann steering geometry (Zhao et al. show how to derive this geometry in a mechanical engineering setting [33]). This approximates idealised steering along a circular arc.

  5. 5.

    More formally, it is the limit of the secant lines through \( (x_0,f(x_0))\) and nearby points (xf(x)) as x approaches \( x_0\). For the tangent line to be well-defined, the graph of f at \( x_0\) must be continuous. The tangent line must not be vertical: a vertical line is not a function and so does not have a slope.

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Acknowledgements

We acknowledge the European Union for funding the INTO-CPS project (Grant Agreement 644047), which developed the open tool chain and the INTO-CPS Application; the Poul Due Jensen Foundation that funded subsequent work on taking this forward towards the engineering of digital twins; and the European Union for funding the HUBCAP project (Grant Agreement 872698). We acknowledge support from the UK EPSRC for funding for the RoboCalc (EP/M025756/1) and RoboTest projects (EP/R025479/1). Finally, we acknowledge support from the Royal Society and National Natural Science Foundation of China for funding for the project Requirements Modelling for Cyber-Physical Systems IEC/NSFC/170319. Early versions of the ideas in this paper were presented to the Digital Twin Centre in Aarhus in December 2019 (twice) and to the RoboStar team in York in January 2020. We are grateful for their feedback.

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Correspondence to Jim Woodcock or Cláudio Gomes .

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Woodcock, J., Gomes, C., Macedo, H.D., Larsen, P.G. (2021). Uncertainty Quantification and Runtime Monitoring Using Environment-Aware Digital Twins. In: Margaria, T., Steffen, B. (eds) Leveraging Applications of Formal Methods, Verification and Validation: Tools and Trends. ISoLA 2020. Lecture Notes in Computer Science(), vol 12479. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-83723-5_6

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-83723-5_6

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