Abstract
Quickening temporal processes—downward-sloping spirals—are becoming increasingly characteristic of the political twists and turns in established democracies. These tempos are emotionally engaging and contagious. They can signify complications and entanglements and open up possibilities of regressive slides. The classical conceptualization refers to the possibility that domestic regression can link up with external surroundings and draw in its major actors, thereby escalating the hostilities between them. For Thucydides, the circumstances of war were one “grand movement”—kinesis megiste. This chapter develops a regression scale model based on the Thucydidean understanding, which aims to understand how healthy states can become entangled in regressive external influences stemming from states that are further down the regression scale.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Notes
- 1.
E.g. Gitter et al. (2020).
- 2.
See, e.g., Allison (2018).
- 3.
- 4.
For example, the Trump campaign put pressure on the Republican Party to change its platform on helping the Ukraine in 2016 (Johnson 2017).
- 5.
In his historical study of revolutionary France, Ozouf (1984: 579) states that terror during those times “becomes less striking if it is viewed as inseparable from war.” Terror can be thought of as an essential part of war, namely, as a part of a type of war, or war can be thought of as a kind of extension of terror.
- 6.
See, e.g., Ross and Homer (1976: 1).
- 7.
For the numerous classic types of diversionary war, see, e.g., Bodin (1955: 168).
- 8.
The examples of diversionary war include the German role in World War I (e.g., Gordon 1974), the Falklands War (e.g., Levy & Vakili 1992), and the October War (Gross Stein 1985). The case studies tend to find support for the diversionary war hypothesis, while systematic empirical studies often fail to find positive evidence. The more systematic studies include Lebow (1981), Levy (1989), and Gelpi (1997).
- 9.
- 10.
Morgan and Bickers (1992) claim that the type of domestic conflict especially prone to externalization is when a leader loses the support of their own party. Dassel and Reinhardt (1999) claim that diversionary war is relevant only if the military as well as politicians feel threatened by domestic strife.
- 11.
See, e.g., Levy (1989).
- 12.
The use of foreign wars and conflicts in American politics has been quite well studied (e.g., Morgan and Bickers 1992). Many studies have found a pattern of externalization present in American politics.
- 13.
See, e.g., Burns (2011).
- 14.
Similarly, Aristotle intertwines alikeness at the level of common opinions to what is likely in the future (e.g., Aristotle 1984: I, 1, 1355, b18).
- 15.
“…justice, alone of the virtues, is thought to be ‘another’s good’, because it is related to our neighbor; for it does what is advantageous to another, either a ruler or a copartner. Now the worst man is he who exercises his wickedness both towards himself and towards his friends, and the best man is not he who exercises his virtue towards himself but he who exercises it towards another; for this is a difficult task” (Aristotle 1984: 5, part 1).
- 16.
Another distinctive feature of anger is that, unlike many passions, it is backward-looking (Rorty 1997: 648). The source of the anger, the perceived injustice of the past, needs to be remedied.
- 17.
In the case of the Athens plague, Thucydides describes how “[m]en now coolly ventured on what they had formerly done in a corner, and not just as they pleased, seeing the rapid transitions produced by persons in prosperity suddenly dying and those who before had nothing succeeding to their property…. Perseverance in what men called honor was popular with none, it was so uncertain whether they would be spared to attain the object; but it was settled that present enjoyment, and all that contributed to it, was both honorable and useful.”
- 18.
On the victimization that precedes and accompanies humanitarian crises, see, e.g., Harff and Gurr (1998).
- 19.
In this context, the talk about “fifth columns,” especially during the first half of the nineteenth century, about the enemy, provides cases in point.
- 20.
See, e.g., The Washington Post (2014).
- 21.
See, e.g., Dassel and Reinhardt (1999: 81).
- 22.
The Russian use of military grade nerve agent to kill a former spy on UK soil provides an example (March 2018) of how domestic elements can be reminded of the need for loyalty abroad as well, in places where regressive Russia has considerable political and financial interests.
- 23.
See, e.g., Aaltola (2009).
References
Aaltola, M. (2009). Western Spectacle of Governance and the Emergence of Humanitarian World Politics. New York: Macmillan.
Allison, G. (2018). Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap? New York: Mariner Books.
Aristotle. (1984). Nicomachean Ethics. In J. Barnes (Ed.), The Complete Works of Aristotle. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
Bodin, J. (1955). Six Books of the Commonwealth. Oxford: Basil Blackwell.
Bougon, F. (2018). Inside the Mind of Xi Jinping. London: Hurst.
Brunt, P. A. (1967). Thucydides and Human Irrationality. Classical Review, 17(3), 278–280.
Burns, T. (2011). The Virtue of Thucydides’ Brasidas. The Journal of Politics, 73(2), 508–523.
Clark, D. H. (2003). Can Strategic Interaction Divert Diversionary Behavior? A Model of US Conflict Propensity. The Journal of Politics, 65(4), 1013–1039.
Cogan, M. (1980). The Human Thing. Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press.
Coser, L. A. (1956). The Functions of Social Conflict. New York: Free Press.
Dassel, K., & Reinhardt, E. (1999). Domestic Strife and the Initiation of Violence at Home and Abroad. American Journal of Political Science, 43(1), 56–85.
Edmunds, L. (1975). Thucydides’ Ethics as Reflected in the Description of Stasis. Harvard Studies in Classical Philology, 79, 73–92.
Entralgo, L. (1970). The Therapy of the Word in Classical Antiquity. New Haven: Yale University Press.
Freedom House. (2019). Democracy in Retreat: Freedom in the World 2019. Available at: https://freedomhouse.org/report/freedom-world/freedom-world-2019/democracy-in-retreat. Accessed 1 January 2020.
Gelpi, C. (1997). Democratic Diversion: Governmental Structure and the Externalization of Domestic Conflict. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 41(2), 255–282.
Gitter, D., Lu, S., & Erdahl, B. (2020, March 30). China Will Do Anything to Deflect Coronavirus Blame. Foreign Policy. Available at: https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/03/30/beijing-coronavirus-response-see-what-sticks-propaganda-blame-ccp-xi-jinping/. Accessed 25 March 2020.
Gordon, M. (1974). Domestic Conflict and the Origins of the First World War: The British and the German Case. The Journal of Modern History, 46(2), 191–226.
Govea, R. M., & West, G. (1981). Riot Contagion in Latin America, 1949–1963. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 25(2), 349–368.
Greene, S., & Robertson, G. (2014, September 9). Explaining Putin’s Popularity: Rallying Round the Russian Flag. The Washington Post. Available at: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2014/09/09/explaining-putins-popularity-rallying-round-the-russian-flag/. Accessed 12 April 2020.
Gross Stein, J. (1985). Calculation, Miscalculation, and Conventional Deterrence II: The View from Jerusalem. In R. Jervis, R. N. Lebow, & J. Gross Stein (Eds.), Psychology and Deterrence: Perspectives on Security. Baltimore, MD: Johns Hopkins University Press.
Hamilton, L. C., & Hamilton, J. D. (1983). Dynamics of Terrorism. International Studies Quarterly, 27(1), 39–54.
Harff, B., & Gurr, T. R. (1998). Systematic Early Warning of Humanitarian Emergencies. Journal of Peace Research, 35(5), 551–579.
Johnson, C. (2017). 2016 RNC Delegate: Trump Directed Change to Party Platform On Ukraine Support. NPR. Available at: https://www.npr.org/2017/12/04/568310790/2016-rnc-delegate-trump-directed-change-to-party-platform-on-ukraine-support?t=1579373797559. Accessed 1 January 2020.
Kalimtzis, K. (2000). Aristotle on Political Enmity and Disease: An Inquiry into Stasis. Albany: State University of New York Press.
Laurie, M. (1993). Thucydides, Hobbes, and the Interpretation of Realism. Thucydides, Hobbes, and the Interpretation of Realism. Chicago: Northern Illinois University Press.
Lebow, R. (1981). Between Peace and War. Baltimore, MD: Johns Hopkins University Press.
Levy, J. S. (1989). Diversionary Theory of War: A Critique. In M. Midlarsky (Ed.), Handbook of War Studies. London: Unwin-Hyman.
Levy, J. S., & Vakili, L. I. (1992). Diversionary Action by Authoritarian Regimes: Argentina in the Falklands/Malvinas Case. In M. I. Midlarsky (Ed.), The Internationalization of Communal Strife. London: Routledge.
Linn, J. (2018). Recent Threats to Multilateralism. Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, 9(1–3), 86–113.
Mallaby, S. (2002). The Reluctant Imperialist: Terrorism, Failed States, and the Case for American Empire. Foreign Affairs, 81(2), 34–41.
Manicas, P. (1982). War, Stasis, and Greek Thought. Comparative Studies in Society and History, 24(4), 673–688.
Midlarsky, M. I., Crenshaw, M., & Yoshida, F. (1980). Why Violence Spreads. International Studies Quarterly, 24(2), 262–298.
Monoson, S. S., & Loriaux, M. (1998). The Illusion of Power and the Distribution of Moral Norms: Thucydides’ Critique of Periclean Policy. American Political Science Review, 92(2), 285–297.
Morgan, T. C., & Bickers, K. N. (1992). Domestic Discontent and the External Use of Force. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 36(1), 25–52.
Motyl, M., & Pyszczynski, T. (2009). The Existential Underpinnings of the Cycle of Terrorist and Counterterrorist Violence and Pathways to Peaceful Resolutions. Revue internationale de psychologie sociale, 22(3–4), 267–291.
Ozouf, M. (1984). War and Terror in French Revolutionary Discourse (1792–1794). The Journal of Modern History, 56(4), 579–597.
Plato. (1984). Laws. Cambridge: Harvard University Press.
Price-Smith, A. (2008). Contagion and Chaos: Disease, Ecology, and National Security in the Era of Globalization. Cambridge: MIT Press.
Rorty, A. O. (1997). The Social and Political Sources of Akrasia. Ethics, 107(4), 644–657.
Ross, M., & Homer, E. (1976). Galton’s Problem in Cross-National Research. World Politics, 29(1), 1–28.
Smith, A. (1998). International Crises and Domestic Politics. The American Political Science Review, 92(3), 623–638.
Stahl, H.-P. (1966). Die Stellung des Menschen im geschichtichen Prozess. Munich: Beck.
Theiler, T. (2018). The Microfoundations of Diversionary Conflict. Security Studies, 27(2), 318–343.
Thucydides. (1954). History of the Peloponnesian War. New York: Penguin Classics.
Zartman, W. (1995). Introduction. In W. Zartman (Ed.), Collapsed States: The Disintegration and Restoration of Legitimate Authority. SAIS African Studies Library. Boulder: Lynne Rienner.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2021 The Author(s)
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Aaltola, M. (2021). The Thucydidean Brink. In: Democratic Vulnerability and Autocratic Meddling. Palgrave Macmillan, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-54602-1_2
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-54602-1_2
Published:
Publisher Name: Palgrave Macmillan, Cham
Print ISBN: 978-3-030-54601-4
Online ISBN: 978-3-030-54602-1
eBook Packages: Political Science and International StudiesPolitical Science and International Studies (R0)