Skip to main content

Customer Purchase Behavior Prediction in E-commerce: A Conceptual Framework and Research Agenda

  • Conference paper
  • First Online:

Part of the book series: Lecture Notes in Computer Science ((LNAI,volume 11948))

Abstract

Digital retailers are experiencing an increasing number of transactions coming from their consumers online, a consequence of the convenience in buying goods via E-commerce platforms. Such interactions compose complex behavioral patterns which can be analyzed through predictive analytics to enable businesses to understand consumer needs. In this abundance of big data and possible tools to analyze them, a systematic review of the literature is missing. Therefore, this paper presents a systematic literature review of recent research dealing with customer purchase prediction in the E-commerce context. The main contributions are a novel analytical framework and a research agenda in the field. The framework reveals three main tasks in this review, namely, the prediction of customer intents, buying sessions, and purchase decisions. Those are followed by their employed predictive methodologies and are analyzed from three perspectives. Finally, the research agenda provides major existing issues for further research in the field of purchase behavior prediction online.

This research was supported by the European Union Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under the Marie Sklodowska-Curie grant agreement No. 765395; the industry partner Raiffeisenlandesbank Oberösterreich AG; and supported, in part, by Science Foundation Ireland grant 13/RC/2094.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution.

Buying options

Chapter
USD   29.95
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
eBook
USD   39.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as EPUB and PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
Softcover Book
USD   54.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Compact, lightweight edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Learn about institutional subscriptions

Notes

  1. 1.

    Digital Commerce 360, Global E-commerce Sales 2019. https://www.digitalcommerce360.com/article/global-ecommerce-sales/.

References

  1. Agnihotri, R., Dingus, R., Hu, M.Y., Krush, M.T.: Social media: influencing customer satisfaction in B2B sales. Ind. Mark. Manage. 53, 172–180 (2016)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  2. Bradlow, E.T., Gangwar, M., Kopalle, P., Voleti, S.: The role of big data and predictive analytics in retailing. J. Retail. 93(1), 79–95 (2017)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  3. Le, D.-T., Fang, Y., Lauw, H.W.: Modeling sequential preferences with dynamic user and context factors. In: Frasconi, P., Landwehr, N., Manco, G., Vreeken, J. (eds.) ECML PKDD 2016. LNCS (LNAI), vol. 9852, pp. 145–161. Springer, Cham (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-46227-1_10

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  4. Erevelles, S., Fukawa, N., Swayne, L.: Big data consumer analytics and the transformation of marketing. J. Bus. Res. 69(2), 897–904 (2016)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  5. Shmueli, G., et al.: To explain or to predict? Stat. Sci. 25(3), 289–310 (2010)

    Article  MathSciNet  MATH  Google Scholar 

  6. Martens, D., Provost, F., Clark, J., de Fortuny, E.J.: Mining massive fine-grained behavior data to improve predictive analytics. MIS Q. 40(4), 869–888 (2016)

    Google Scholar 

  7. Ricci, F., Rokach, L., Shapira, B.: Introduction to recommender systems handbook. In: Ricci, F., Rokach, L., Shapira, B., Kantor, P. (eds.) recommender systems handbook, pp. 1–35. Springer, Boston (2011). https://doi.org/10.1007/978-0-387-85820-3_1

    Chapter  MATH  Google Scholar 

  8. Bobadilla, J., et al.: Recommender systems survey. Knowl.-Based Syst. 46 109–132 (2013)

    Google Scholar 

  9. Lu, J., et al.: Recommender system application developments: a survey. Decis. Support Syst. 74, 12–32 (2015)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  10. Isinkaye, F.O., Folajimi, Y.O., Ojokoh, B.A.: Recommendation systems: principles, methods and evaluation. Egypt. Inf. J. 16(3), 261–273 (2015)

    Google Scholar 

  11. Webster, J., Watson, R.T.: Analyzing the past to prepare for the future: writing a literature review. MIS Q. 26, xiii–xxiii (2002)

    Google Scholar 

  12. Kitchenham, B., Brereton, O.P., Budgen, D., Turner, M., Bailey, J., Linkman, S.: Systematic literature reviews in software engineering–a systematic literature review. Inf. Softw. Technol. 51(1), 7–15 (2009)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  13. Akter, S., Wamba, S.F.: Big data analytics in e-commerce: a systematic review and agenda for future research. Electron. Mark. 26(2), 173–194 (2016)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  14. Zeng, M., Cao, H., Chen, M., Li, Y.: User behaviour modeling, recommendations, and purchase prediction during shopping festivals. Electron. Mark. 29(2), 1–12 (2018)

    Google Scholar 

  15. Jia, R., Li, R., Yu, M., Wang, S.: E-commerce purchase prediction approach by user behavior data. In: 2017 International Conference on Computer, Information and Telecommunication Systems (CITS), pp. 1–5. IEEE (2017)

    Google Scholar 

  16. Suchacka, G., Chodak, G.: Using association rules to assess purchase probability in online stores. Inf. Syst. e-Bus. Manag. 15(3), 751–780 (2017)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  17. Chen, C., Xiao, J., Hou, C., Yuan, X.: Improving purchase behavior prediction with most popular items. IEICE Trans. Inf. Syst. 100(2), 367–370 (2017)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  18. Niu, X., Li, C., Yu, X.: Predictive analytics of e-commerce search behavior for conversion. In: Twenty-Third Americas Conference on Information Systems (2017)

    Google Scholar 

  19. Lee, M., Ha, T., Han, J., Rha, J.Y., Kwon, T.T.: Online footsteps to purchase: exploring consumer behaviors on online shopping sites. In: 2015 Proceedings of the ACM Web Science Conference. ACM (2015)

    Google Scholar 

  20. Boroujerdi, E.G., et al.: A study on prediction of user’s tendency toward purchases in websites based on behavior models. In: 2014 6th Conference on Information and Knowledge Technology (IKT), pp. 61–66. IEEE (2014)

    Google Scholar 

  21. Baumann, A., Haupt, J., Gebert, F., Lessmann, S.: Changing perspectives: using graph metrics to predict purchase probabilities. Expert Syst. Appl. 94, 137–148 (2018)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  22. Suchacka, G., Skolimowska-Kulig, M., Potempa, A.: A k-nearest neighbors method for classifying user sessions in e-commerce scenario. J. Telecommun. Inf. Technol. 3, 64–69 (2015)

    Google Scholar 

  23. Lin, W., Milic-Frayling, N., Zhou, K., Ch’ng, E.: Predicting outcomes of active sessions using multi-action motifs. In: IEEE/WIC/ACM International Conference on Web Intelligence, pp. 9–17, October 2019

    Google Scholar 

  24. Park, C.H., Park, Y.H.: Investigating purchase conversion by uncovering online visit patterns. Mark. Sci. 35(6), 894–914 (2016)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  25. Sheil, H., Rana, O., Reilly, R.: Predicting purchasing intent: automatic feature learning using recurrent neural networks (2018). arXiv preprint arXiv:1807.08207

  26. Sakar, C.O., Polat, S.O., Katircioglu, M., Kastro, Y.: Real-time prediction of online shoppers’ purchasing intention using multilayer perceptron and LSTM recurrent neural networks. Neural Comput. Appl. 31(10), 6893–6908 (2019)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  27. Li, Q., Gu, M., Zhou, K., Sun, X.: Multi-classes feature engineering with sliding window for purchase prediction in mobile commerce. In: 2015 IEEE International Conference on Data Mining Workshop (ICDMW), pp. 1048–1054. IEEE (2015)

    Google Scholar 

  28. Iwanaga, J., Nishimura, N., Sukegawa, N., Takano, Y.: Estimating product-choice probabilities from recency and frequency of page views. Knowl.-Based Syst. 99, 157–167 (2016)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  29. He, T., Yin, H., Chen, Z., Zhou, X., Luo, B.: Predicting users’ purchasing behaviors using their browsing history. In: Sharaf, Mohamed A., Cheema, M.A., Qi, J. (eds.) ADC 2015. LNCS, vol. 9093, pp. 129–141. Springer, Cham (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-19548-3_11

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  30. Jia, R., Li, R.: Modeling user purchase preference based on implicit feedback. In: CSCWD, pp. 832–836. IEEE (2018)

    Google Scholar 

  31. Park, C., Kim, D., Yang, M.C., Lee, J.T., Yu, H.: Your click knows it: predicting user purchase through improved user-item pairwise relationship (2017). arXiv preprint arXiv:1706.06716

  32. Nishimura, N., Sukegawa, N., Takano, Y., Iwanaga, J.: A latent-class model for estimating product-choice probabilities from clickstream data. Inf. Sci. 429, 406–420 (2018)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  33. Singhal, R., et al.: Fast online ‘next best offers’ using deep learning. In: Proceedings of the ACM India Joint International Conference on Data Science and Management of Data. CoDS-COMAD 2019, pp. 217–223. ACM, New York (2019)

    Google Scholar 

  34. Bai, J., et al.: Personalized bundle list recommendation. In: The World Wide Web Conference. ACM (2019)

    Google Scholar 

  35. Zheng, B., Liu, B.: A scalable purchase intention prediction system using extreme gradient boosting machines with browsing content entropy. In: 2018 IEEE International Conference on Consumer Electronics (ICCE), pp. 1–4. IEEE (2018)

    Google Scholar 

  36. Minjing, P., Xinglin, L., Ximing, L., Mingliang, Z., Xianyong, Z., Xiangming, D., Mingfen, W.: Recognizing intentions of e-commerce consumers based on ant colony optimization simulation. J. Intell. Fuzzy Syst. 33(5), 2687–2697 (2017)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  37. Schellong, D., Kemper, J., Brettel, M.: Generating consumer insights from big data click-stream information and the link with transaction-related shopping behavior. In: Proceedings of the 25th European Conference on Information Systems (ECIS) (2017)

    Google Scholar 

  38. Schellong, D., Kemper, J., Brettel, M.: Clickstream data as a source to uncover consumer shopping types in a large-scale online setting. In: ECIS. Research Paper 1 (2016)

    Google Scholar 

  39. Romov, P., Sokolov, E.: Recsys challenge 2015: ensemble learning with categorical features. In: Proceedings of the 2015 International ACM Recommender Systems Challenge, vol. 1. ACM (2015)

    Google Scholar 

  40. Wu, Z., Tan, B.H., Duan, R., Liu, Y., Mong Goh, R.S.: Neural modeling of buying behaviour for e-commerce from clicking patterns. In: Proceedings of the 2015 International ACM Recommender Systems Challenge, vol. 12. ACM (2015

    Google Scholar 

  41. Vieira, A.: Predicting online user behaviour using deep learning algorithms. arXiv preprint arXiv:1511.06247 (2015)

  42. Yeo, J., Kim, S., Koh, E., Hwang, S.w., Lipka, N.: Predicting online purchase conversion for retargeting. In: Proceedings of the Tenth ACM International Conference on Web Search and Data Mining, pp. 591–600. ACM (2017)

    Google Scholar 

  43. Li, D., Zhao, G., Wang, Z., Ma, W., Liu, Y.: A method of purchase prediction based on user behavior log. In: 2015 IEEE International Conference on Data Mining Workshop (ICDMW), pp. 1031–1039. IEEE (2015)

    Google Scholar 

  44. Liu, G., et al.: Repeat buyer prediction for e-commerce. In: Proceedings of the 22nd ACM SIGKDD International Conference on Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining, pp. 155–164. ACM (2016)

    Google Scholar 

  45. Guo, L., Hua, L., Jia, R., Zhao, B., Wang, X., Cui, B.: Buying or browsing?: predicting real-time purchasing intent using attention-based deep network with multiple behavior. In: Proceedings of the 25th ACM SIGKDD International Conference on Knowledge Discovery & Data Mining, pp. 1984–1992, July 2019

    Google Scholar 

  46. Kooti, F., Lerman, K., Aiello, L.M., Grbovic, M., Djuric, N., Radosavljevic, V.: Portrait of an online shopper: understanding and predicting consumer behavior. In: Proceedings of the Ninth ACM International Conference on Web Search and Data Mining, pp. 205–214. ACM (2016)

    Google Scholar 

  47. Panagiotelis, A., Smith, M.S., Danaher, P.J.: From amazon to apple: modeling online retail sales, purchase incidence, and visit behavior. J. Bus. Econ. Stat. 32(1), 14–29 (2014)

    Article  MathSciNet  Google Scholar 

  48. Green, H.E.: Use of theoretical and conceptual frameworks in qualitative research. Nurse Res. 21, 6 (2014)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  49. Tang, L., Wang, A., Xu, Z., Li, J.: Online-purchasing behavior forecasting with a firefly algorithm-based SVM model considering shopping cart use. Eurasia J. Math. Sci. Technol. Educ. 13(12), 7967–7983 (2017)

    Google Scholar 

  50. Schölkopf, B.: The kernel trick for distances. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems, pp. 301–307 (2001)

    Google Scholar 

  51. Jeni, L.A., Cohn, J.F., De La Torre, F.: Facing imbalanced data–recommendations for the use of performance metrics. In 2013 Humaine Association Conference on Affective Computing and Intelligent Interaction, pp. 245–251. IEEE, September 2013

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Douglas Cirqueira .

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

© 2020 Springer Nature Switzerland AG

About this paper

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this paper

Cirqueira, D., Hofer, M., Nedbal, D., Helfert, M., Bezbradica, M. (2020). Customer Purchase Behavior Prediction in E-commerce: A Conceptual Framework and Research Agenda. In: Ceci, M., Loglisci, C., Manco, G., Masciari, E., Ras, Z. (eds) New Frontiers in Mining Complex Patterns. NFMCP 2019. Lecture Notes in Computer Science(), vol 11948. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-48861-1_8

Download citation

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-48861-1_8

  • Published:

  • Publisher Name: Springer, Cham

  • Print ISBN: 978-3-030-48860-4

  • Online ISBN: 978-3-030-48861-1

  • eBook Packages: Computer ScienceComputer Science (R0)

Publish with us

Policies and ethics