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Demography, Long Cycles, and Climate/Disease

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Power Concentration in World Politics

Part of the book series: World-Systems Evolution and Global Futures ((WSEGF))

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Abstract

Among approaches to explaining global history, the secular cycles and leadership long cycle schools emphasize much different phenomena. The former stresses processes highlighting demographic pressures and the rise and fall of land powers. The latter focuses on trading states, maritime activities, and economic growth pulsations. While the two research programs seemingly possess little in common, appearances may be deceiving. By elucidating their overlapping emphasis on structured punctuations in demographic/dynastic cycles with significant changes in global political economy, it is possible to show how the two schools of thought are complementary. A more integrated approach, encompassing population, disease, war, and economic growth dynamics, should enhance our understanding of changes in global history.

An earlier version of this chapter first appeared as “Synthesizing Secular, Demographic-structural, Climate, and Systemic Leadership: Moving Toward Explaining Domestic and World Politics in the Last Millennium.” Cliodynamics: The Journal of Theoretical and Mathematical History 1, 1 (November, 2010): 26–57.

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Notes

  1. 1.

    Works in this genre include Turchin (2003, 2005), Korotayev and Khatourina (2006), Korotayev et al. (2006), Turchin and Nefedov (2009).

  2. 2.

    See Chap. 4 for more on the question of long economic waves.

  3. 3.

    The de Vries and Van der Woude argument is disputed in Thompson and Zakhirova (2019).

  4. 4.

    Ancient trade re-orientations in southwest Asia are discussed in Thompson (2006).

  5. 5.

    For evidence on European climate changes, see Lamb (1982), Flohn and Fantechi (1984), Grove (2004), and, more generally, Wilson et al. (2000).

  6. 6.

    For some discussions of this conceptual shift, see Mensch (1979), Marchetti (1980), and Devezas and Modelski (2008).

  7. 7.

    Thompson (2008) provides an overview of leadership long cycle models pertaining to global warfare.

  8. 8.

    For more on the dissynchronization model of global war, see Thompson (1992), Rasler and Thompson (1994, 2001), and Chap. 6.

  9. 9.

    See Chase-Dunn and Willard (1993), Chase-Dunn et al. (2000, 2006a, b, c), Chase-Dunn and Manning (2002), Hall and Turchin (2007), and White et al. (2008).

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  1. Indiana University Bloomington, Bloomington, IN, USA

    Prof. William R. Thompson

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Thompson, W.R. (2020). Demography, Long Cycles, and Climate/Disease. In: Power Concentration in World Politics. World-Systems Evolution and Global Futures. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-47422-5_2

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-47422-5_2

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