Fuzzy-Multiple Methodology for Estimating the Risk of Bankruptcy of an Enterprise Based on a Complex of MDA Models and Matrix Aggregation Schemes

Abstract

The aim of the paper is to develop a methodology for a comprehensive assessment of the bankruptcy risk of an enterprise based on fuzzy-multiple aggregation of estimates obtained through the use of a combination of classical models. The methodology is based on the use of fuzzy multi-level classifiers. It allows aggregating estimates by three groups of selected models, in which the enterprise is evaluated by a number of quantitative models. It should be noted that the analysis applies only those indicators that most reflect the possibility of bankruptcy. At the final stage, the normalized bankruptcy risk assessments obtained in each of the groups are aggregated into the final assessment, which is an integral indicator of the bankruptcy risk of an enterprise. The novelty of the proposed method lies in the possibility of combining the conclusions obtained on the basis of unified methods using various evaluation criteria, as well as in the possibility of taking into account their weight coefficients in the model, reflecting the reliability of the models for the studied group of enterprises.