Abstract
This study aims to evaluate stream flow predication capability of three hydrological models including Parameter Efficient Semi-Distributed Watershed Model (PED-WM) model, Hydrologiska Byrans Vattenbalansavdelning (HBV) and Hydraulic Engineering Center-Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC-HMS) in range of sizes of watersheds, Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia. The model efficiency on daily time scale during calibration period for PED-W (NSE = 0.76, 0.81 and 0.57), HBV-IHMS (NSE = 0.68, 0.79 and 0.59) and HEC-HMS (NSE = 0.63, 0.68 and 0.48) were obtained for Anjeni, Gumara and Main Belles watersheds respectively. Similarly, for validation period PED-W (NSE = 0.6, 0.73 and 0.37), HBV-IHMS (NSE = 0.56, 0.79 and 0.55) and HECHMS (NSE = 0.52, 0.74 and 0.37) were obtained for Anjeni, Gumara and Main Belles watersheds respectively. Similarly, the model performances on monthly time steps were also varied among three hydrological models and the results better than the daily time scale. In PED-W, saturation excess is the main direct runoff process. The overall model performance indicated that PED-W model was better than the other two models. The result indicates that the models in the highlands of Ethiopia are dominantly dependent on the runoff mechanism dominantly on saturation excess runoff mechanism. Hence, there should be an approach to integrate climate region specific model in our water resource development system for predicting stream flow for ungagged catchments.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
References
Awulachew, S.B., McCartney, M., Steenhuis, T.S., Ahmed, A.A.: A review of hydrology, sediment and water resource use in the Blue Nile Basin; IWMI (2009). ISBN 978-92-9090-699-5
Johnson, M.S., Coon, W.F., Mehta, V.K., Steenhuis, T.S., Brooks, E.S., Boll, J.: Application of two hydrologic models with different runoff mechanisms to a hillslope dominated watershed in the Northeastern US: a comparison of HSPF and SMR. J. Hydrol. 284, 57–76 (2003)
Moges, M.A., Schmitter, P., Tilahun, S.A., Steenhuis, T.S.: Watershed modeling for reducing future non-point source sediment and phosphorus load in the Lake Tana Basin, Ethiopia. J. Soils Sediments, 18(1), 309–322 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11368-017-1824-z
Steenhuis, T.S., et al.: Predicting discharge and sediment for the Abay (Blue Nile) with a simple model. Hydrol. Process. Int. J. 23, 3728–3737 (2009)
Collick, A.S., et al.: A simple semi-distributed water balance model for the Ethiopian Highlands. Hydrol. Process. Int. J. 23, 3718–3727 (2009)
Tilahun, S.A., et al.: An efficient semi-distributed hillslope erosion model for the subhumid Ethiopian Highlands. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 17, 1051–1063 (2013)
Gebre, S.L.: Application of the HEC-HMS model for runoff simulation of upper Blue Nile River Basin. Hydrol. Curr. Res. 6, 1 (2015)
Enku, T., Melesse, A.M.: A simple temperature method for the estimation of evapotranspiration. Hydrol. Process. 28, 2945–2960 (2014)
Bayabil, H.K., Tilahun, S.A., Collick, A.S., Yitaferu, B., Steenhuis, T.S.: Are runoff processes ecologically or topographically driven in the (sub) humid Ethiopian Highlands? The case of the Maybar watershed. Ecohydrology 3, 457–466 (2010)
Thornthwaite, C.M., Mather, J.R.: The Water Balance. Publica Tions Climatol, Centerton (1955)
Hammouri, N., El-Naqa, A.: Hydrological modeling of ungauged wadis in arid environments using GIS: a case study of Wadi Madoneh in Jordan. Rev. Mex. Cienc. Geológicas 24, 185–196 (2007)
Tilahun, S.A., et al.: An efficient semi-distributed hillslope sediment model: the Anjeni in the sub humid Ethiopian Highlands. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss. 8, 2207–2233 (2011)
Moges, M.A., et al.: Suitability of watershed models to predict distributed hydrologic response in the Awramba watershed in Lake Tana Basin. Land Degrad. Dev. 28, 1386–1397 (2017)
Wale, A., Rientjes, T.H.M., Gieske, A.S.M., Getachew, H.A.: Ungauged catchment contributions to Lake Tana’s water balance. Hydrol. Process. Int. J. 23, 3682–3693 (2009)
Tilahun, S.A., et al.: Distributed discharge and sediment concentration predictions in the sub-humid Ethiopian Highlands: the Debre Mawi watershed. Hydrol. Process. 29, 1817–1828 (2015)
U.A.C. Engineers of Hydrologic modeling system HEC-HMS technical reference manual. Hydrol. Eng. Cent. (2000)
Easton, Z.M., et al.: A multi basin SWAT model analysis of runoff and sedimentation in the Blue Nile. Ethiopia. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 14, 1827–1841 (2010)
Tilahun, S.A., et al.: Spatial and temporal patterns of soil erosion in the semi-humid Ethiopian Highlands: a case study of Debre Mawi watershed. In: Melesse, A.M., Abtew, W., Setegn, S.G. (eds.) Nile River Basin, pp. 149–163. Springer, Cham (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-02720-3_9
Tilahun, S.A., et al.: A saturation excess erosion model. Trans. ASABE 56, 681–695 (2013)
Dagnew, D.C., et al.: Impact of conservation practices on runoff and soil loss in the sub-humid Ethiopian Highlands: the Debre Mawi watershed. J. Hydrol. Hydromech. 63, 210–219 (2015)
Rientjes, T.H.M., Haile, A.T., Kebede, E., Mannaerts, C.M.M., Habib, E., Steenhuis, T.S.: Changes in land cover, rainfall and stream flow in Upper Gilgel Abbay catchment, Blue Nile Basin–Ethiopia. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 15, 1979–1989 (2011)
Acknowledgements
The financial source of this study primally has been supported by Ethiopia government such as Minister of education, Ethiopia Road Authority. The first authors would like to thanks Bahir Dar University for their supporting every aspect for needed study. We would like to also thanks to National Meteorological Agency (NMA) Bahir Dar branch for their help by providing necessary data for this study.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2020 ICST Institute for Computer Sciences, Social Informatics and Telecommunications Engineering
About this paper
Cite this paper
Bihonegn, B.G., Moges, M.A., Mulu, G.F., Sinshaw, B.G. (2020). Evaluation of Stream Flow Prediction Capability of Hydrological Models in the Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia. In: Habtu, N., Ayele, D., Fanta, S., Admasu, B., Bitew, M. (eds) Advances of Science and Technology. ICAST 2019. Lecture Notes of the Institute for Computer Sciences, Social Informatics and Telecommunications Engineering, vol 308. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-43690-2_14
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-43690-2_14
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, Cham
Print ISBN: 978-3-030-43689-6
Online ISBN: 978-3-030-43690-2
eBook Packages: Computer ScienceComputer Science (R0)