Abstract
The main focus on three watersheds in the upper Blue Nile. The study used the Representative concentration pathway (RCP) climate model scenarios with 50 km resolution. The CORDEX-Africa model output of RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios were used. The Parameter Efficient Semi Distributed Water Balance model (PED-WM) was calibrated and validated to project the climate change impacts on the stream flow events. The future climate projection results were presented by dividing in to three future time horizons of 2030s (2021–2040), 2060s (2051–2070) and 2090s (2081–2100). The bias corrected maximum and minimum temperature increases in all months and seasons in the selected watersheds. The change in magnitude in RCP8.5 emission was higher than RCP2.6 scenario. The study resulted considerable average monthly, seasonal and annual precipitation change variability in magnitude and direction. In 2030s, the average annual Stream flow projection decreases up to −32.18% for RCP2.6 and up to −19.44% for RCP8.5 scenarios. In 2060s also the average annual stream flow decreases by −12.3% and −32.18% for RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios, respectively. Similarly, in 2090 s, the average annual Stream flow change decreases by −20.67 and −51.78% for RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 respectively. For the future time horizon, the maximum Stream flow changes in wide range from (−56.4 to 81.1%) and minimum flow from (−61.72 to 8.17%) in both RCP2.6 and RCP8.5.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
References
Baede, A.P.M.: The climate system: an overview. In: Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis, pp. 38–47 (2001)
Cubasch, U., et al.: Projections of future climate change. Climate change 2001: the scientific basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. In: Ding, Y., et al. (eds.), pp. 526–582. Cambridge University Press, New York (2001)
Latta, G., Temesgen, H., Adams, D., Barrett, T.: Analysis of potential impacts of climate change on forests of the United States Pacific Northwest. For. Ecol. Manage. 259, 720–729 (2010)
Pachauri, R.K., et al.: Climate change 2014: synthesis report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the fifth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. IPCC (2014)
IPCC (2007). https://scholar.google.com/scholar?hl=en&as_sdt=0%2C5&q=IPCC%2C+2007+&btnG. Accessed 1 Nov 2019
Beyene, T., Lettenmaier, D.P., Kabat, P.: Hydrologic impacts of climate change on the Nile River Basin: implications of the 2007 IPCC scenarios. Clim. Change 100, 433–461 (2010)
Elshamy, M., Seierstad, I.A., Sorteberg, A.: Impacts of climate change on Blue Nile flows using bias-corrected GCM scenarios. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 13, 551–565 (2009)
Kim, U., Kaluarachchi, J.J.: Climate change impacts on water resources in the upper Blue Nile River Basin, Ethiopia 1. JAWRA J. Am. Water Resour. Assoc. 45, 1361–1378 (2009)
Adem, A.A., et al.: Climate change projections in the upper Gilgel Abay River catchment, Blue Nile Basin Ethiopia. In: Melesse, A.M., Abtew, W., Setegn, S.G. (eds.) Nile River Basin, pp. 363–388. Springer, Cham (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-02720-3_19
Dile, Y.T., Berndtsson, R., Setegn, S.G.: Hydrological response to climate change for Gilgel Abay River, in the Lake Tana basin-upper Blue Nile Basin of Ethiopia. PLoS One 8, e79296 (2013)
Taye, M.T., Ntegeka, V., Ogiramoi, N.P., Willems, P.: Assessment of climate change impact on hydrological extremes in two source regions of the Nile River Basin. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 15, 209–222 (2011)
Ashagre, B.B.: SWAT to identify watershed management options: Anjeni Watershed, Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia. Ph.D. thesis, Citeseer (2009)
Herweg, K., Gebre, M.Y.: Adaptation or adoption? Integrating different perceptions of soil and water conservation in Ethiopia. Local Environ. In: Flury, M., Geiser, U. (eds.) Local Environmental Management in a North-South Perspective: Issues of Participation and Knowledge Management, pp. 181–190. Vdf Hochschulverlag AG ETH Zurich, Zurich (2002)
Ludi, E.: Economic Analysis of Soil Conservation: Case Studies from the Highlands of Amhara Region, Ethiopia. Geographica Bernensia, Bern (2004)
Anandhi, A., et al.: Examination of change factor methodologies for climate change impact assessment. Water Resour. Res. 47, W03501 (2011)
Penman, H.L.: Natural evaporation from open water, bare soil and grass. Proc. R. Soc. Lond. Ser. Math. Phys. Sci. 193, 120–145 (1948)
Enku, T., Melesse, A.M.: A simple temperature method for the estimation of evapotranspiration. Hydrol. Process. 28, 2945–2960 (2014)
Steenhuis, T.S.: Predicting discharge and sediment for the Abay (Blue Nile) with a simple model. Hydrol. Process. Int. J. 23, 3728–3737 (2009)
Nash, J.E., Sutcliffe, J.V.: River flow forecasting through conceptual models Part I—A discussion of principles. J. Hydrol. 10, 282–290 (1970)
Moriasi, D.N., Arnold, J.G., Van Liew, M.W., Bingner, R.L., Harmel, R.D., Veith, T.L.: Model evaluation guidelines for systematic quantification of accuracy in watershed simulations. Trans. ASABE 50, 885–900 (2007)
Abdo, K.S., Fiseha, B.M., Rientjes, T.H.M., Gieske, A.S.M., Haile, A.T.: Assessment of climate change impacts on the hydrology of Gilgel Abay catchment in Lake Tana basin Ethiopia. Hydrol. Process. Int. J. 23, 3661–3669 (2009)
Gebre, S.L., Ludwig, F.: Hydrological response to climate change of the upper Blue Nile River Basin: based on IPCC fifth assessment report (AR5). J. Climatol. Weather Forecast. 3, 121 (2015)
Conway, D.: From headwater tributaries to international river: observing and adapting to climate variability and change in the Nile basin. Glob. Environ. Change 15, 99–114 (2005)
Collick, A.S., et al.: A simple semi-distributed water balance model for the Ethiopian highlands. Hydrol. Process. Int. J. 23, 3718–3727 (2009)
Tilahun, S.A., et al.: Distributed discharge and sediment concentration predictions in the sub-humid Ethiopian highlands: the Debre Mawi watershed. Hydrol. Process. 29, 1817–1828 (2015)
Moges, M.A., et al.: Suitability of watershed models to predict distributed hydrologic response in the awramba watershed in Lake Tana Basin. Land Degrad. Dev. 28, 1386–1397 (2017)
Kim, U., Kaluarachchi, J.J., Smakhtin, V.U.: Climate change impacts on hydrology and water resources of the upper Blue Nile River Basin, Ethiopia, vol. 126. IWMI, Colombo (2008)
Aich, V., et al.: Comparing impacts of climate change on streamflow in four large African River Basins. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 18, 1305–1321 (2014)
Nawaz, N.R., Bellerby, T., Sayed, M., Elshamy, M.: Blue Nile runoff sensitivity to climate change. Open Hydrol. 4, 137–151 (2010)
Setegn, S.G., Rayner, D., Melesse, A.M., Dargahi, B., Srinivasan, R.: Impact of climate change on the hydroclimatology of Lake Tana Basin, Ethiopia. Water Resour. Res. 47 (2011)
Enyew, B.D., Van Lanen, H.A.J., Van Loon, A.F.: Assessment of the impact of climate change on hydrological drought in Lake Tana catchment, Blue Nile basin, Ethiopia. J. Geol. Geosci. 3, 174 (2014)
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2020 ICST Institute for Computer Sciences, Social Informatics and Telecommunications Engineering
About this paper
Cite this paper
Mulu, G.F., Moges, M.A., Bihonegn, B.G. (2020). Evaluating the Impacts of Climate Change on the Stream Flow Events in Range of Scale of Watersheds, in the Upper Blue Nile Basin. In: Habtu, N., Ayele, D., Fanta, S., Admasu, B., Bitew, M. (eds) Advances of Science and Technology. ICAST 2019. Lecture Notes of the Institute for Computer Sciences, Social Informatics and Telecommunications Engineering, vol 308. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-43690-2_12
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-43690-2_12
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, Cham
Print ISBN: 978-3-030-43689-6
Online ISBN: 978-3-030-43690-2
eBook Packages: Computer ScienceComputer Science (R0)