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Secular Stagnation Theories pp 103–143Cite as

Supply-Side Stagnation Theories

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Part of the book series: Springer Studies in the History of Economic Thought ((SSHET))

Abstract

In contrast to the previous chapter, this chapter focuses on theories of supply-side stagnation. It includes the hypotheses of Adam Smith, Thomas R. Malthus, John S. Mill, David Ricardo, and Karl Marx, as well as of the twentieth-century-economists Joseph A. Schumpeter, Jean Fourastié, William J. Baumol, and Donella H. Meadows. Although they are not secular stagnationists as such, it is also referred to Robert M. Solow and Trevor W. Swan, whose neoclassical growth model has dominated mainstream economics since the 1970s and indirectly includes a theory of stagnation. Moreover, the stagnation theory of Robert J. Gordon is discussed, which, in the contemporary stagnation debate, is commonly viewed as the supply-side counterpart to Lawrence H. Summers’s demand-side approach.

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Notes

  1. 1.

    Quotations from Smith ([1776] 1976) are given in the following form: book (uppercase Roman numbers, where applicable), chapter (lowercase Roman numbers, where applicable), page(s) (Arabic numbers).

  2. 2.

    This follows from the following identity: \(\frac{I}{K} \, = \, \frac{S}{P}\frac{P}{K}\). Given Say’s law, if a decline in the profit rate \(\left( P/K\right) \) is accompanied by a sufficient rise in the proportion of saving out of profits \(\left( S/P\right) \), capital accumulation \(\left( I/K\right) \) may increase. See also Kurz and Sturn (2013, pp. 78–79).

  3. 3.

    With regard to the state of competition in the economy, Smith stands in contrast to Steindl. While Smith expected the stationary state to be characterized by a high degree of competition, Steindl assumed secular stagnation to grow out of a decline in competition among firms.

  4. 4.

    Ricardo assumed all capital to be wage capital. Given this assumption, the profit rate is equal to the profit share divided by the wage share in output. Hence, the profit rate necessarily declines with a fall in the profit share and a corresponding rise in the wage share (de Vivo 1987, p. 190).

  5. 5.

    Quotations from Mill ([1848] 1965) are given in the following form: book (uppercase Roman numbers), chapter (lowercase Roman numbers), page(s) (Arabic numbers).

  6. 6.

    The complete metamorphosis of a commodity is described by the exchange commodity–money–commodity, or C–M–C. This includes, first, the selling of a commodity in exchange for money (C–M). The money can then be used to purchase another commodity (M–C) (Marx [1867] 1906, pp. 128–129, 164–167).

  7. 7.

    In light of the existence of counteracting factors, Marx ([1894] 1909, p. 272) explicitly referred to a falling tendency of the rate of profit.

  8. 8.

    As Steindl (1987, p. 473) pointed out, “[...] breakdown and stagnation are not the same thing.” While stagnation may lead to the decline of capitalism, it is not a necessity if adequate policy measures can be implemented. See also Riese (1965, p. 698).

  9. 9.

    Nonetheless, as thoroughly outlined by Dal Pont Legrand and Hagemann (2016; 2017), contrary to popular belief Schumpeter advocated government intervention in severe, so-called pathological depressions. While expansionary (deficit-financed) fiscal policy measures may be appropriate, however, the government should be committed to again balance its budget once the economy has recovered (Schumpeter [1934] 1989, p. 117).

  10. 10.

    Speaking of the long run, Schumpeter ([1942] 2008, p. 163) considered a century a short-run period.

  11. 11.

    Elsewhere, however, Schumpeter ([1942] 2008, pp. 87–106) did not appear reluctant to monopolistic and oligopolistic market structures. See also Foster (2011, p. 5).

  12. 12.

    Other than Marx, Schumpeter (1950, p. 447)—writing at the time of Stalin’s Soviet Union—did also not endorse socialism.

  13. 13.

    As pointed out by Rothschild (1994, p. 135), the dominance of neoclassical growth theory was one of the reasons why Steindl ’s ([1952] 1976) stagnation hypothesis remained largely unnoticed.

  14. 14.

    Output per capita growth accordingly falls with a decline in technological progress.

  15. 15.

    On the consideration of stagnation in neoclassical growth theory, see also Brandt (1988, pp. 471–472).

  16. 16.

    As Fourastié’s own classification is empirically impractical, he maintained the traditional sectoral breakdown for his empirical analysis. See Fourastié ([1949] 1969, p. 75) and Staroske (1995, p. 20).

  17. 17.

    As outlined by Baumol (2012, pp. 80–81, 191–192), a constant real output ratio is a simplifying assumption which is not necessarily applicable from an empirical point of view. On the example of the United States, Appelbaum and Schettkat (1999, pp. 393–397) show that the real output share of the service sector was roughly constant until the mid-1970s, but has increased thereafter. In fact, a rise in the real output share of the nonprogressive sector reinforces Baumol’s predictions (see also Oulton 2001, p. 613).

  18. 18.

    It must be noted, however, that fiscal adjustments are not necessarily needed. With a rise in incomes, ceteris paribus public tax revenues can be expected to increase as well, even without a rise in tax rates.

  19. 19.

    Brundtland (1987, p. 40) vaguely defines sustainable development as development which “[...] seeks to meet the needs and aspirations of the present without compromising the ability to meet those of the future.”

  20. 20.

    The term Trente Glorieuses was coined by Jean Fourastié (1979) in his book Les Trente Glorieuses: Ou la Révolution invisible de 1946 à 1975.

  21. 21.

    It should be noted that the productivity measures shown in Fig.  4.1 refer to actual developments and do not reflect the developments along full-employment potential output paths. Although it is assumed that in the long run actual and full-employment potential developments are similar, statistical data first and foremost reflect actual developments. In fact, productivity growth tends to fluctuate procyclically, i.e., a decline in output growth below its full-employment potential growth rate is typically accompanied by a fall in productivity growth (and vice versa). As outlined by Clauß (1968, p. 319, own translation), “Only [...] when all production or productivity capacities are fully employed [...] do statistical productivity data indicate the true productive force of an economy.” In case of a lack of aggregate demand and a negative output gap, “[...] the term ‘productivity’ should only be used in quotation marks; [...] in this case changes [in statistical data] only reflect changes in demand [...] and have little or nothing to do with the true productive force of the economy.”

  22. 22.

    Capital deepening is a rise in the ratio of capital input to hours worked. Labor quality captures the impact of education and experience (and other factors) on the efficiency of labor hours. Total factor productivity is commonly referred to as the Solow residual and measures the efficiency of both capital and labor resulting from innovation and technological progress (Gordon 2016, pp. 15–16; Barro and Sala-i Martin 2004, pp. 436–438).

  23. 23.

    It should be noted that the average annual growth rates shown in Fig. 4.1b vary according to the exact time periods chosen. Calculations based on different sub-periods, however, do not change the basic pattern.

  24. 24.

    For example, Gordon (2016, p. 579) responds to Solow’s (1987) alleged paradox that “[...] one can see the computer age everywhere but in the productivity statistics [...]” by stating that “[...] computers are not everywhere” (Emphasis added.) According to Gordon (2016, pp. 441–443, 578), the share of information and communication technologies in the total economy is just too small to have a similarly strong impact as the innovations of the second Industrial Revolution.

  25. 25.

    As shown in Fig. 4.1, a similar temporary revival of total factor and labor productivity growth between the mid-1990s and mid-2000s has apparently not occurred in other advanced countries or—as in the case of Canada—has been less pronounced than in the United States.

  26. 26.

    Closely related to income inequality is the aforementioned issue of education, with the causal link probably holding in both directions. While differences in educational attainment are among the various causes of income inequality, by the same token a more unequal income distribution may contribute to higher educational inequalities across generations (Gordon 2016, pp. 620–624, 631). Hence, as education is an important driver of labor productivity, higher income inequality may hamper growth in real output via the educational channel.

  27. 27.

    As argued by Martin and Rowthorn (2012, pp. 55), due to large layoffs of labor, countries such as the United States and Spain experienced relatively stable and even rising productivity growth rates in the wake of the financial crisis of 2008–2009. In contrast, in the United Kingdom, Germany, and other European countries, productivity growth slowed down more strongly after the crisis, as labor was hoarded to some degree. On the nexus between labor productivity and labor hoarding, see also Okun (1962) and Biddle (2014).

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    Christina Anselmann

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Anselmann, C. (2020). Supply-Side Stagnation Theories. In: Secular Stagnation Theories. Springer Studies in the History of Economic Thought. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-41087-2_4

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