Population Growth and Global Food Supplies

Abstract

Nineteenth-century classical economist Thomas Malthus predicted a bleak future for mankind because of his argument that population growth had a natural tendency to outpace growth in food supplies. Interest in the ideas of Malthus was reawakened by the explosion in international food prices during the 1970s—the ‘World Food Crisis’—but this quickly subsided when prices fell and we entered an era of ‘cheap food’. However, international food prices exploded again in 2008 and since then have remained relatively high and volatile. This time, the cause may have been a major shift in the long term balance between supply and demand for food on world markets. Although most experts predict a gradual decline in the rate of growth in the world’s population, this still means many more mouths to feed by the end of the century. In principle, there can be enough food, but more enlightened international policies will be required if global inequality does not lead to a Malthusian future.