Abstract
The plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) is recognized as a pivotal component in transportation energy security and technology innovation in China. With government incentives and substantial capital investments, the Chinese PEV market has become one of the largest in the world. However, is this market boom ephemeral or will it be continuing? This chapter provides a general review of the Chinese PEV market mainly from the consumer perspective, by summarizing the characteristics of the vehicle policies and consumer concerns in the PEV market in recent years. Moreover, it introduces detailed examples on how the policies, technologies, and infrastructure shape the market. In addition to employing large amounts of reliable data from the China Automotive Technology and Research Center for the review, the authors also adopted a quantitative analysis tool—the New Energy and Oil Consumption Credits model—to project the potential industrial impacts of the government policies in multiple scenarios. Based on the findings, it seems that the prosperity of the PEV market, incentivized by the government, will continue in the short run. The direct subsidies to PEV from the government will gradually phase out, and the supply-side push policies such as the dual-credit policy and other charging infrastructure incentives will work as the invisible hand to force the automakers to invest more in the PEV segment. However, in the long run, innovation in PEV technology and business models, together with consumer acceptance will be the major factors that can sustain further market growth.
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Notes
- 1.
The currency exchange rate of $1.000 USD = 6.910 CNY which is the average exchange rate in 2016. Source from the U.S. IRS “Yearly average currency exchange rates”, https://www.irs.gov/individuals/international-taxpayers/yearly-average-currency-exchange-rates (visited in May 2018).
- 2.
In the June 2017 draft version of dual-credit policy, the required NEV minimum ratio is 8% in 2018. However, the official version released in September 2017 postpones the implementation of NEV-credit rules one year later, which means only CAFC-credit rules took effects in 2018.
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Acknowledgements
The authors would like to thank Aramco Services Company for their generous financial support for this study, and the China Automotive Technology and Research Center for their data support. The authors are solely responsible for the views expressed in this book chapter.
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Ou, S. et al. (2020). China’s Booming Plug-in Electric Vehicle Market—How Will It Continue?. In: Contestabile, M., Tal, G., Turrentine, T. (eds) Who’s Driving Electric Cars. Lecture Notes in Mobility. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-38382-4_11
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