Water and Food Security Crisis Influencing Human Mobility Patterns: A Comprehensive Overview

Synopsis

The theory and practice of managing land and water interactions for ensuring food and water security are inherently complex. For an enhanced understanding of the interlinkages of this nexus, the chapter adopts a 3-tiered approach. The first tier outlines diverse narratives to explain human mobility and displacement driven by food and water crisis scenarios in different socioecological, sociocultural, and socio-political settings with a focus on Asia and Africa. The second tier unpacks how migration trends and patterns connect to water and food crisis scenarios. The third tier employs a case study approach (Congo Basin region) to illustrate the interlinkages in water security, food production and, human mobility in setting of conflicts. Overall, the chapter highlights the relatively under-examined scenarios stemming from water and food crisis and provide a guideline framework to assess multiple dimensions of human mobility, while connecting to the sustainable development agenda.

Annexure

Aggregation of multiple narratives as a tool to explain pluralistic dimensions and interlinkages that apply to land, food, and water crisis settings and resulting human mobility

Narrative and related information	Explanation, example, and context
The theoretical narrative Identifies environmental (climate and ecological degradation related events)-driven human mobility migration as a central component to migration assessment discourse and planning An in-depth focus on direct and indirect drivers remain limited The rate and severity of environmental changes are rapidly increasing, and consequently, so are the number of people affected, empirical evidence is generic and often scattered	Environmental change is unquestionably the most significant influence on patterns of migration worldwide (Hynie et al. 2016) Estimates and projections by various agencies helps to provide evidence. For example, Brown (2007) estimates that 200 million people may be displaced by environmental changes by 2050 The spectrum of direct and indirect environmental drivers escalates and exacerbates other drivers of migration, such as conflict and dwindling livelihood opportunities. Focus on understanding interlinkages is pertinent
The narrative of “duality” Is an overarching aspect of human mobility Migration gives rise to both opportunities and challenges in the areas of origin and destination In cases, mainly where agriculture is characterized by underemployment, migration may result in better employment opportunities and higher incomes for those who remain	At the place of destination, when migrants are socially and economically integrated into the host communities, they may contribute to GDP and innovation and skillset upgrade (FAO 2018) Migration from rural areas could have negative implications for agricultural productivity due to labor shortages, affect intra-household labor substitution patterns, and add to the work burden of women
The historical narrative Claims that human mobility connects with water in many sociocultural and socioeconomic settings Despite these early historical insights, references to the environment (climate, water, extreme events) as a prominent factor disappeared progressively from the migration literature over the twentieth century In 1889, poor climate conditions precipitated currents of migration that also persist today In the 1980s and early 1990s, a few landmark publications raised the issue and shared alarmist estimates of the people foreseen to move (Piguet et al. 2011)	Human mobility is seen as a common adaptation strategy (Afsar 2003) Nomads and pastoralists in Africa, Middle East, and Asia, in particular, carved customary migration pathways to ensure water and food for their livestock Migration known to provide sustained livelihood and provisioning for their communities (Jägerskog et al. 2016)
The human development narrative Is a firmly entangled with the water-food crisis and human mobility nexus Water demand has increased in many regions of the world in order to meet the food and energy demands of the growing population As such, water represents a critical development factor in economic growth-oriented development models This narrative is more significant if governance is weak, infrastructure inadequate, and institutions fragile (Gleick and Iceland 2018)	Increasing pressure on water resources undermines water security and contributing to conflict, migration, and food insecurity in many parts of the world Currently, crisis scenarios relating to water availability and accessibility increase the severity of drought and flood events, biodiversity-watersheds-ecosystems degradation, challenges in managing wastewater (municipal, industrial, and agricultural), and dynamics of surface water and groundwater use
The socioeconomic and gender narrative Is apparent yet often overlooked dimension Unstable living conditions that manifest in human mobility scenarios are not usually sensitive to gender norms In Africa, where most IDPs stay with relatives or in host communities, hosts in turn may exhaust their resources in addressing the new arrivals (IDMC 2012) or the gender groups can be subjected to harassments and assault	Women are generally vulnerable, particularly with respect to gender-based violence, as are children (Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre (IDMC 2019) Unplanned human mobility poses a potential threat to human security and sustainability, particularly through the loss of productive land, livestock, home, and vital assets as a result of water and food crises (IDMC 2018) IDPs often lose land, property, livelihoods, and access to health services and education and therein become poor
The climate change narrative Is multifaceted, and its impact on human mobility is embedded at various levels in the emerging pathways of human mobility In 1990, the first UN IPCC report on climate change raised the alarm that the gravest effect of climate change may be on human migrants as millions will be displaced (IPCC 1992)	Impacts of climate change reduce the communities’ resilience to cope with shocks (i.e., environmental, social, and political). For example, infrastructure damage (e.g., broken water pipes, contaminated water) caused from flooding increases the exposure of communities and populations to risks such as waterborne diseases and malnutrition and thereby creates a situation of acute food and water insecurity (IDMC 2018)
The narrative of adaptation Argues that migration represents an unsustainable adaptation pathway which reflect a mismatch between expectations and reality Migrants who move to seek better employment opportunities may move from one vulnerability to another (Black et al. 2011) Also, applies to the rural to urban mobility	IPCC states, “migration is the only option in response to sea-level rise that inundates islands and coastal settlement” (IPCC 2007) indicating that some cases of relocation occur in low-resource settings, where migration is the only option for survival The internal displacement of people and communities in Africa and Asia has been associated with the occurrence of droughts. However, limited information is available as to how floods, droughts, climate extreme events, and food and climate crisis triggers international and long-distance migration. The cost burden of internal displacement and international migration can be quite different, and frequently people may choose to spend their money on food and survival needs instead of the cost of moving far away (international migration)
The narrative of environmental determinism States that environmental changes tend to affect individuals and communities differently. Vulnerability theories emphasize that the impact of any specific environmental change depends on the affected individuals’ and communities’ ability to adapt (McLeman and Smit 2006) It remains challenging to attribute specific environmental conditions as a main cause of human mobility trends and patterns, particularly at the local scale (Black et al. 2011)	The individual and community capabilities and nation and state level abilities to cope with migration induced through environmental change are intertwined with existing institutional and polices measure that states have in place, such as insurances for crop failure due to extreme events or compensation policies for loss of income, etc. Subjective assessments may overlook the intricacies governing this nexus. For example, when reporting the reasons behind migration, those experiencing water and food crisis can perceive more proximal drivers, such as livelihoods, as the primary deciding factor Existing climate adaptation strategies and development plans for managing detrimental effects of environmental change, resilience building, land, and water management usually do not factor addressing the resultant human mobility
The narratives of health, tenure rights, ownerships, and allocations These factors influence displacement of people, as safe and accessible water is fundamental to human development and well-being (e.g., human consumption, domestic use, food production, or recreation) Development projects like dam construction or irrigation system expansion lead to the redistribution of water allotments among sharing stakeholders (Gleick 2000)	Making a distinction between territory and property is essential when considering water management planning options. Territory implies stewardship of nature and its resources (including water), whereas “property” refers to something that can be cordoned-off and privatized Human mobility driven from centralized ownership can be addressed by instituting a system of collective ownership for water
The narrative of conflicts Future projections show that nations and states may face extreme water stress in the case of heavy dependency on river water which is controlled by upstream nations who have unresolved water-sharing issues Water crisis is becoming acute, and conflicts in shared water basins are on the rise (OECD 2012; DNI 2012) Conflicts negatively influence community’s resilience to cope with the impacts of climate change	Water and food crisis-induced human mobility, in some cases, links to conflict and violence Conflicts are further connected to situations when population and communities are directly affected by food and water crisis. For example, high rainfall variability intensifies competing use of land and water resources and augments pre-existing disputes or other drivers of human mobility, thereby indirectly aggravating mobility (IDMC 2018) Conflicts also increase the risks of displacement
The narrative of SDGs Solomon and Sheldon (2018) explain that the declaration accompanying the adoption of the SDGs, recognizes the positive contribution of migrants for “inclusive growth and sustainable development” World Water Development Report of 2019 and World Water Day theme of 2019 “leaving no one behind” presents a narrative of inclusivity (WWAP 2019)	It is widely argued that human mobility and displacement context are underrepresented in the sustainable development agenda (Samman et al. 2018) Increasingly, the member states of United Nations are acknowledging that “international migration” is a multidimensional reality of significant relevance for the development of countries of origin, transit, and destination and requires coherent and comprehensive responses