Scenarios, the Future, and Simplicity

Abstract

Many are trying to foresee what will happen in the future. Numerical calculations of changes in society often rely on statistical methods with no capacity to predict the future. Many try to relate various parameters to one another, hoping to gain knowledge of what is to come. Weather forecasting can provide information about conditions some days in advance. It is clear that emissions of carbon dioxide and other anthropogenic GHGs need to be reduced to prevent global warming. However, the global earth system models applied in climate change assessments rely on prescribed emission storylines and their projections are conditional on the assumed forcing. A major question for society is how to develop a greener and more sustainable future. The ocean responds by sending an image of barnacles adhering to a cliff, indicating that humans need to slow down, learn more from the ocean, and build durable and trusting relationships.