Abstract
The volume commences with an assessment of the scholarly literature on the South African business cycle since the 1960s and then proceeds to newly uncovered sources providing evidence on business cycles over the past 100 years. The book then moves to study the impact of the global financial crisis on the South African business cycle, comparing recovery behaviour to cycles elsewhere and highlighting the role of the institutional framework. This is followed by an analysis of key drivers of South African cycles, first based on a narrative history of individual cycles since the 1970s and then using modern DSGE models. The final two chapters focus on methods for better predicting the cycle, studying the role of sentiment and evaluating the South African Reserve Bank’s forecasting strategy.
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References
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Boshoff, W.H. (2020). Introduction. In: Boshoff, W. (eds) Business Cycles and Structural Change in South Africa. Advances in African Economic, Social and Political Development. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-35754-2_1
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-35754-2_1
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