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Big History and Singularity as Metaphors, Hypotheses, and Predictions

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The 21st Century Singularity and Global Futures

Part of the book series: World-Systems Evolution and Global Futures ((WSEGF))

Abstract

The main topics of this chapter are the (1) correlations between geological, biological, and social evolution, (2) the reality of accelerating evolutionary processes, as well as (3) the possibility of combining them into an integrated sequence tending to the point of singularity. It is postulated that there are two main patterns of evolutionary processes. The first pattern is a pulsating evolution, consisting of long periods of gradual evolution with a more or less constant speed, separated by shorter periods of crises (periods of rapid evolution). The second pattern includes two components of evolution—one sharply slowing and the other sharply accelerating. Very fast hyperexponential and hyperbolic laws of deceleration occurred during the formation of our Universe, Solar System, and planet Earth, while acceleration occurred throughout Earth-based evolution (including social evolution). Social history can be presented as a continuation of biological history. However, social evolution acts not as a continuation, but as a built-in mechanism of its own self-destruction. Presumably, artificial intelligence and interference with the human genome will play this same role as the social revolution did (see below Chapter “Technological Achievements of the Future as the Path of Destruction of Habitual Human Society?”). Much attention is paid to the most important phase transitions of biological and social evolution, described in the works of Raymond Kurzweil, Theodore Modis, and Alexander Panov, which represent hyperbolic growth, composed of geometric progressions of decreasing intervals between phase transitions with a factor in the 2.5–3 range. This factor is most likely due to psychological reasons, allowing us to recognize confidently distinct neighboring objects (intervals, objects on the map, etc.). Such geometric progressions are often found in descriptions of the geological environment and geological time. The interval lengths of the geochronological (stratigraphic) scale act as an acceleration measure of biological evolution, also with a hyperbolic trend. As a result, it is concluded that accelerations of biological and social evolution are real processes, but they have a complex composition and intermittent nature. There also remains a bias because recent evolutionary stages are perceived to have greater impact than earlier stages. However, segmentation of history, with the help of phase transition points, is necessary, if not for explanation, then for the perception and understanding of both human and Earth history.

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Notes

  1. 1.

    Chapter “About the singularity and its possible place in global history: deductive approach” (Grinchenko and Shchapova 2020), Chapter “Dynamics of Technological Growth Rate and the Forthcoming Singularity” (Grinin et al. 2020), Chapter “The Twenty First Century’s “Mysterious Singularity” in the Light of Mega-History” (Nazaretyan 2020), Chapter “Singularity of Evolution and Post-singular Development” (Panov 2020), Chapter “The Twenty First Century Singularity: The Role of Perspective and Perception” (Widdowson 2020), Chapter “About the Singularity in Biological and Social Evolution” (Malkov 2020), and Chapter “Global Society as Singularity and Point of Transition to the New Phase of Social Evolution” (Dobrolyubov 2020).

  2. 2.

    For the editor’s critique of this assertion see Chapter “How singular is the Twenty First Century Singularity?” (Korotayev 2020a) in this volume.

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  1. St. Petersburg Mining University, Saint Petersburg, Russian Federation

    Sergey Tsirel

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  1. Sergey Tsirel
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Correspondence to Sergey Tsirel .

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  1. Higher School of Economics, National Research University, Moscow, Russia

    Andrey V. Korotayev

  2. Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, IL, USA

    David J. LePoire

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Tsirel, S. (2020). Big History and Singularity as Metaphors, Hypotheses, and Predictions. In: Korotayev, A., LePoire, D. (eds) The 21st Century Singularity and Global Futures. World-Systems Evolution and Global Futures. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-33730-8_6

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-33730-8_6

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