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The 21st Century Singularity and Global Futures pp 517–534Cite as

About the Singularity in Biological and Social Evolution

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Part of the book series: World-Systems Evolution and Global Futures ((WSEGF))

Abstract

Using mathematical modeling, we consider the phenomenon of singularity in the biological and social history. It is shown that hyperbolic trends in biological and social evolution can be explained by transitional processes that accompany the expansion of ecological niches due to periodically occurring revolutionary innovations. During these periods, strong positive feedbacks are actualized, leading to hyperbolic growth. However, this growth is then inhibited, and the system goes into a new qualitative state. Then, there is a relatively slow development of the updated system with a gradual accumulation of quantitative characteristics and a new innovative breakthrough. This cycle then repeats multiple times. In this regard, the system’s hyperbolic growth trends indicate the transitivity of its current state, while the time of singularity in this hyperbolic trend indicates the end of the transition process.

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Notes

  1. 1.

    We make an important remark that the sequence of “planetary revolutions” is arranged in Table 1 with respect to biological (and not geological) evolution.

  2. 2.

    It should be noted that the new stable population is determined not only by the new value of γ, but also by the new values for α and β that determine the dynamics of fertility and mortality in new society. Thus, in modern developed countries, value α is reduced (due to the transition from large to small family model) while reducing the β values (due to improvements in medicine and increased life expectancy).

  3. 3.

    Equation (16) is approximate, since it clearly does not take into account the dependence γ′ on time. But it can be shown that it confirms the hyperbolic nature of the dependence of N on time (see, e.g., Grinin et al. 2013)

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Acknowledgement

This work has been supported by the Russian Foundation for Basic Research (project # 17-06-00464).

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  1. Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia

    Sergey Malkov

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  1. Sergey Malkov
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Correspondence to Sergey Malkov .

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  1. Higher School of Economics, National Research University, Moscow, Russia

    Andrey V. Korotayev

  2. Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, IL, USA

    David J. LePoire

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Malkov, S. (2020). About the Singularity in Biological and Social Evolution. In: Korotayev, A., LePoire, D. (eds) The 21st Century Singularity and Global Futures. World-Systems Evolution and Global Futures. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-33730-8_23

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