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Conclusion: The Strength of Epistemic Hopes

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Experts, Social Scientists, and Techniques of Prognosis in Cold War America

Part of the book series: Socio-Historical Studies of the Social and Human Sciences ((SHSSHS))

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Abstract

This chapter describes the trajectories of the two techniques of prognosis beyond RAND. Together with other former RAND colleagues, Olaf Helmer and Theodore J. Gordon founded the Institute for the Future (IFTF) and carried out Delphi studies on problems beyond military interests. And with the support of Paul Kecskemeti, Lincoln P. Bloomfield from MIT’s Center for International Studies (CENIS) began to use political gaming as a method of both research and teaching.

In concluding, the chapter considers the narrative weaving together hope, trust, and the expert in Cold War America. Many actors profited from the narrative’s stability. Decision-makers profited from the promise that their decisions could be based on sound empirical evidence. The public profited from the assurance that science was there to level out possible irrationalities in elite decision-making processes. And finally, the scientific experts profited from the authority accredited to them, and tried their best to nurture it.

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Notes

  1. 1.

    The invention of cross-impact analysis was fostered by a contract with Kaiser Aluminum & Chemicals Corporation to design a future-oriented game to celebrate the firm’s twentieth anniversary. The game, simply called Future , came out in 1966 (cf. Interview with Theodore J. Gordon by the author, 16 August 2013, pp. 3–4). Helmer had already collected experience with designing games. Together with Lloyd Shapley, he developed Summit which was published in 1961 by Cameo Games (cf. Interview with Martin Shubik by the author, 2 September 2011, p. 3).

  2. 2.

    Cf. http://www.millennium-project.org/about-us/planning-committee/ted-gordon/, (accessed 17 July 2019).

  3. 3.

    In 2009, 2900 experts participated in the survey. Based on their input, NISTEP’s ninth Delphi Survey forecasts for instance that solar photoelectric power generation plants in space that transmit electricity to the ground via microwaves or lasers will be technologically feasible in 2027 and socially realized in Japan ten years later (cf. NISTEP 2010, 12).

  4. 4.

    After resigning from government service, Jones continued to devise political-military games at RAND (e.g., Jones 1986).

  5. 5.

    Albert Wohlstetter, then already at the University of Chicago, participated in a JWGA crisis game in spring 1967 (Albert & Roberta Wohlstetter Papers, Hoover Institution Archives, Stanford, California, box 134, folders 13 and 14).

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    Christian Dayé

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Dayé, C. (2020). Conclusion: The Strength of Epistemic Hopes. In: Experts, Social Scientists, and Techniques of Prognosis in Cold War America. Socio-Historical Studies of the Social and Human Sciences. Palgrave Macmillan, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-32781-1_7

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