Abstract
This introductory chapter locates the techniques of social prognosis described in the book in the coeval historical and cultural situation. The effects of the atomic bombs that detonated over Hiroshima and Nagasaki in summer 1945 marked the beginning of a new culture of insecurity. This culture was global: as a major token in a game of deterrence, the atomic bomb affected both the threatened and the threateners.
One reaction to this pervasive insecurity was the turn toward the expert. The expert had been a social figure well established in US political discourse, but the culture of insecurity further increased the amount of hope and trust in its abilities. This hope met with the need of foreknowledge for decision-making. Considerable effort was spent at the RAND Corporation to develop techniques of prognosis that made systematic use of expert opinions to deliver ideas on the future.
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Notes
- 1.
Although not treated in this book, a prophecy thus is a subtype of a prediction where the credibility fully depends on the ascribed transcendental abilities of the person making the prediction.
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Dayé, C. (2020). Introduction: A Culture of Insecurity and Its Experts. In: Experts, Social Scientists, and Techniques of Prognosis in Cold War America. Socio-Historical Studies of the Social and Human Sciences. Palgrave Macmillan, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-32781-1_1
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