Abstract
In the final chapter, McCurdy summarizes the main lessons contained in the early history of commercial space flight. Space travel is capital intensive and requires large outlays of cash long in advance of returns. To launch an independent space transportation business, private sources of investment capital are typically insufficient. Yet government support is not always necessary to supplement the shortfall. McCurdy argues that philanthropic entrepreneurs, incentive prizes and legacy investors can be effective substitutes for government help. New space entrepreneurs launched their firms with the aim of escaping the more restrictive aspects of government control. The firms demonstrated their capacity for innovation. Now that human flights in private spacecraft are set to begin, events will test the ability of business firms to sustain safe and relatively inexpensive flight. McCurdy concludes by reviewing the large number of new space companies that failed or disappeared. Failure is very much an option and an important force behind commercial space innovation, but for the movement to succeed, a few outstanding entries need to prevail.
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Notes
- 1.
MacDonald, The Long Space Age.
- 2.
Catherine Clifford, “Jeff Bezos: Forget Mars, humans will live in these free-floating space pod colonies,” CNBC (March 8, 2019); Elien Blue Becque, “Elon Musk Wants to Die on Mars,” Vanity Fair Hive (March 10, 2013).
- 3.
The $788 million figure includes $55 million reserved for internal NASA program management. NASA, Commercial Orbiter Transportation Services: 95. The industry estimate appears in the same source, page 92. The target price is based on the CRS phase one contract awards of $1.9 and $1.6 billion for 8 and 12 flights, respectively. NASA, NASA Awards Space Station Commercial Resupply Services Contract, release C08-069, December 23, 2008. See endnote 3, Chap. 1 for additional detail. For actual cost per flight estimates, see Jason Davis, “Does NASA get its money’s worth for Antares-Cygnus flights?” The Planetary Society (May 11, 2017). Removing the funds supplied for spacecraft development, the figures Davis presents suggest that NASA initially paid $310 million per flight for the Cygnus vehicle and $163 million per flight for the SpaceX Dragon.
- 4.
NASA, Commercial Crew Program – The Essentials, February 25, 2016; NASA, release 14-256, NASA Chooses American Companies to Transport U.S. Astronauts to International Space Station, September 16, 2014. Target launch figures are based on the full 14 launch model at the full maximum potential contract value for both contractors.
- 5.
The Apollo/Saturn IB cost estimate is based on a per Apollo capsule cost of $55 million plus a Saturn IB rocket fabrication and launch cost of $47 million, adjusted for inflation using the NASA New Start Inflation index (1969–2014). The estimated development cost of the Saturn IB was $395 million ($4.1 billion adjusted for inflation 1965–2014). McCurdy, “How much did we really spend to go to the Moon?”
- 6.
Rami Grunbaum, “Aviation analyst isn’t buying the dream of ‘disruptive’ new flying machines” Seattle Times (April 19, 2017). The comments were directed toward aviation initiatives but are as applicable to spacecraft.
- 7.
LinkedIn (2019) lists the Paragon Space Development Corporation, with headquarters in Tucson, Arizona, as having 54 employees. Their website www.paragonsdc.com/what-we-do/ (accessed July 16, 2019) states that the company “produces innovative solutions for the most demanding life support and thermal control challenges in the space and defense markets.” See also NASA, Commercial Crew & Cargo, C3PO, March 7, 2012 www.nasa.gov/offices/c3po/partners/ccdev_info.html (accessed July 16, 2019). The privately funded Rocket Lab, formed in 2006, completed seven launches between mid-2017 and mid-2019. See www.rocketlabusa.com (2019) (accessed July 16, 2019). They specialize in lightweight rockets and small satellites. Though not participants in the larger NASA cargo and crew awards, they have an interesting investment history. See Alan Boyle, “Rocket Lab reports $140 M in fresh funding, cementing space unicorn status,” Yahoo! Finance, GeekWire (November 15, 2018).
- 8.
Gordon Kane, “Are virtual particles really constantly popping in and out of existence? Or are they merely a mathematical bookkeeping device for quantum mechanics?” 2019 <scientificamerican.com> (accessed July 11, 2019).
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Funding Universe, Orbital Sciences Corporation History, n.d. <http://www.fundinguniverse.com/company-histories/orbital-sciences-corporation-history/> (accessed July 16, 2019).
- 10.
NASA, Commercial Orbital Transportation Services: 29 & 32; PitchBook, profile previews, Spaceflight Industries, 2019 <https://pitchbook.com/profiles/company/109810-72> (accessed July 19, 2019). Other sources place the acquisition closer to 2015.
- 11.
NASA, Commercial Orbital Transportation Services: 29; Alan Boyle, “Let’s talk about the final frontier,” Cosmic Log on msnbc.com (February 28, 2011); LinkedIn, David Gump 2019 www.linkedin.com/in/davidgump (accessed July 16, 2019). Gump indicated that he co-founded t/Space in 2004 and left the company in 2008. NASA officials signed the first-round cargo awards in 2006 and concluded the first round of crew transport awards in 2010. Hudson was also the founder of Rotary Rocket.
- 12.
See Andrew Strauss, “Failure to launch: “Why NASA’s unchecked use of OTA power may one day doom the agency,” University of Dayton Law Review 2015 (Vol. 40:1) 131–54.
- 13.
NASA, Commercial Orbital Transportation Services: 31; Pat Bahn, The Space Show (broadcast 780) June 27, 2007 <thespaceshow.com> 2017; Braddock Gaskill, “TGV Rockets ‘Walking before they can run,’” NASAspaceflight.com (September 7, 2005) www.nasaspaceflight.com/2005/09/tgv-rockets-walking-before-they-can-run/; Tgv Rockets Inc., Norman, Oklahoma, LinkedIn, 2019 www.linkedin.com/company/tgv-rockets-inc (all accessed July 15, 2019).
- 14.
NASA, Commercial Orbital Transportation Services: 28; Jonathan Goff, Venturer Space COTS Proposal: the S-500 (March 16, 2006) http://selenianboondocks.blogspot.com/2006/03/venturer-space-cots-proposal-s-550.html/ also available on https://selenianboondocks.com/2006/03/venturer-space-cots-proposal-the-s-550/ (both accessed July 18, 2019).
- 15.
NASA, Commercial Orbital Transportation Services: 28; X Prize, X Prize Team Summary Sheet, PanAero (December 16, 2002) <http://commercialspace.pbworks.com/f/PanAero.pdf> (accessed July 17, 2019); Yvonne Shinhoster Lamb, Len Cormier; Designed Lower-Cost Space Van,” Washington Post (July 16, 2008).
- 16.
NASA, Commercial Space Transportation, CCP and Excalibur Sign Space Act Agreement (November 2, 2011); “End of the Line for Excalibur Almaz?” (March 11, 2015) and “The Long, Sad History of Excalibur Almaz” (June 16, 2016), both on <parabolicarc.com/tag/excalibur-almaz/> (accessed July 13, 2019).
- 17.
Tariq Malik, “NASA Signs Support Agreements With Two Private Spaceflight Firms,” Space.com (February 2, 2007); Malik, “Orbital Dreams: New Launch Site in Hand for Private Spaceflight Firm,” Space.com (August 21, 2006); Government of Canada, Federal Incorporation Information – 636325-3, certificate of dissolution, February 6, 2013, updated May 22, 2019.
- 18.
See Erik Sofge, “The World’s Top 10 Most Innovative Companies in Space,” Fast Company (March 1, 2014); New Space, Wikipedia, June 29, 2019 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NewSpace (accessed July 18, 2019).
- 19.
NASA, Office of Inspector General, NASA’s Top Management and Performance Challenges, November 2014: 3–4.
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McCurdy, H.E. (2019). Reflections and Summary. In: Financing the New Space Industry. Palgrave Studies in the History of Science and Technology. Palgrave Pivot, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-32292-2_12
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