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Rainfall Trends in Southern Portugal at Different Time Scales

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INCREaSE 2019 (INCREaSE 2019)

Abstract

The evidence about the climate change is now considered to be unequivocal. But if visible changes are occurring at an increased rate over shorter periods, then the time series of the hydrologic variables more directly related to the climate, as rainfall or temperature, should denote progressively more pronounced signs of such changes, under the form of trends or non-homogeneities. Though some studies were previously developed for mainland Portugal, the expectable increasing signs of the changes in the values and behavior of some hydrological variables makes it essential: (i) to ensure the soundness of those studies by using the most suitable models applied to time series as long as possible; (ii) to update such studies by continuously incorporating the more recent data. In the scope briefly mentioned, the paper presents an analysis on long-term rainfall trends at different time scales in southern Portugal. For this purpose, 62 rain gages with 108 years of monthly rainfall data were analyzed based on the nonparametric Mann–Kendall (MK) test coupled with the Sen’s slope estimator method. Further an analysis about sequential changes in trends of the rainfall series was conducted using the sequential MK (SQMK) method. The study shows that the rainfall is markedly decreasing. It also provides new insights about the within-the-year relative contribution of the wettest months of the rainy period.

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Acknowledgment

This work is funded by the FCT - Scientific Cooperation Agreement between Portugal and Slovakia – 2019/2020, SK-PT-18-0008, regarding the first and fourth authors, by FCT - grant n.º PD/BD/128509/2017, as for the second, and by the CAPES - Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior, Brazil, finance code 001, as for the third author.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. IST/UL, CERIS, Lisbon, Portugal

    Maria Manuela Portela & Luis Angel Espinosa

  2. UFC, Fortaleza, Ceará, Brazil

    Ticiana Studart

  3. TUK, Košice, Slovakia

    Martina Zelenakova

Authors
  1. Maria Manuela Portela
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  2. Luis Angel Espinosa
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  3. Ticiana Studart
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  4. Martina Zelenakova
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Maria Manuela Portela .

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

  1. Instituto Superior de Engenharia, Universidade do Algarve, Faro, Portugal

    Jânio Monteiro

  2. Instituto Superior de Engenharia, Universidade do Algarve, Faro, Portugal

    António João Silva

  3. Instituto Superior de Engenharia, Universidade do Algarve, Faro, Portugal

    António Mortal

  4. Instituto Superior de Engenharia, Universidade do Algarve, Faro, Portugal

    Jaime Aníbal

  5. Instituto Superior de Engenharia, Universidade do Algarve, Faro, Portugal

    Manuela Moreira da Silva

  6. Instituto Superior de Engenharia, Universidade do Algarve, Faro, Portugal

    Miguel Oliveira

  7. Instituto Superior de Engenharia, Universidade do Algarve, Faro, Portugal

    Nelson Sousa

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Portela, M.M., Espinosa, L.A., Studart, T., Zelenakova, M. (2020). Rainfall Trends in Southern Portugal at Different Time Scales. In: Monteiro, J., et al. INCREaSE 2019. INCREaSE 2019. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-30938-1_1

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-30938-1_1

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