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Quantitative Assessment of Strategic Threats and Energy Security Indicators

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Long-term Modeled Projections of the Energy Sector

Part of the book series: Springer Geophysics ((SPRINGERGEOPHYS))

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Abstract

We provide a conceptual-level overview of energy security threats and indicators. One of key strategic threats is that of a capacity shortage: possible lagging behind of fuel production centers, electric power industry, and transportation infrastructure relative to the growing demand for fuel and energy. A list of indicators is proposed for the communication of the assessment of risks and the severity of a possible capacity deficit. We propose a two-stage approach to quantitative assessment of the strategic-level threat of a capacity shortage in the energy sector that accounts for the effect of the assumed economic development scenario and a certain hypothesis underpinning the energy carriers pricing policy to the extent they can influence these threats.

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Notes

  1. 1.

    As thresholds for the above indicators, one can benchmark the values they take abroad. In Japan and major European countries, the gas cost makes up 5–8%, while electric energy costs are 2–5% of total production costs [33].

  2. 2.

    Professor Dr. A. I. Kuzovkin, at the meeting held by the NP “NTS ES” board (April 2013) [35], presented the following results of econometric calculations that appear controversial in terms of their significance: the growth of the real (i.e. that above the inflation rate) price of electric energy by 1% leads to the decrease in the GDP by 0.06–0.2%.

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  1. Irkutsk, Russia

    Yuri D. Kononov

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Correspondence to Yuri D. Kononov .

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Kononov, Y.D. (2020). Quantitative Assessment of Strategic Threats and Energy Security Indicators. In: Long-term Modeled Projections of the Energy Sector . Springer Geophysics. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-30533-8_5

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