Assessing and Factoring in Conditions and Barriers that Limit the Projection Range of Prospective Development of the Energy Sector

  • Yuri D. KononovEmail author
Part of the Springer Geophysics book series (SPRINGERGEOPHYS)


We develop a provisional concept of barriers in the energy sector, highlighting major problems and challenges that are part of the research, and providing tentative solutions. We provide a taxonomy of constraints and barriers of the energy sector development. Barriers are defined as existing bottlenecks that can potentially hinder the development of energy systems under the conditions anticipated for a given time period. They are identified by way of juxtaposing the energy sector development requirements and the capacity to meet them. Quantitative estimates of barriers can serve as constraints in economic and mathematical models that are employed for making projections. Original methods that address these issues are provided, including those targeting inertia-induced barriers, temporal barriers, and investment barriers.


Barriers Inertia Investment risks Development constraints NPV 


  1. 1.
    Melentiev LA (1979) Energy systems analysis: sketch for a theory and directions for development. Nauka, Moscow, p 414 (In Russian)Google Scholar
  2. 2.
    Merkin RM (1978) Economic problems of cutting down the construction time. Ekonomika, Moscow, p 175 (In Russian)Google Scholar
  3. 3.
    Howells M et al (2010) Incorporating macroeconomic feedback into an energy systems model using an IO approach: evaluating the rebound effect in the Korean electricity system. Energy Policy 38, Incorporating macroeconomic feedback into an energy systems model using an IO approach 6:2700–2728CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  4. 4.
    Makarov AA, Makarova AS, Khorshev AA (2011) Prospects of the development of nuclear power plants to the mid-twenty-first century. Energy Research Institute, Moscow, pp 210 (In Russian)Google Scholar
  5. 5.
    Kononov YD (1981) Energy and economy: the challenge to transitioning to new energy sources. Nauka, Moscow, p 190 (In Russian)Google Scholar
  6. 6.
    Smirnov VA (1983) Adaptation processes in the energy industry development: theoretical issues and analytical procedures. Adaptation process in the energy industry development. Nauka, Moscow, p 196 (In Russian)Google Scholar
  7. 7.
    Smirnov VA () Problems of enhancing the flexibility in the energy industry. Nauka, Moscow, p 191 (In Russian)Google Scholar
  8. 8.
    Deich IG (1985) Energy-economic trends in the development of production facilities. Nauka, Moscow, p 176 (In Russian)Google Scholar
  9. 9.
    Kononov YD (1981) External production links and inertia of the energy sector. Izvestiia SO AN SSSR. Seriia obshchstvennykh nauk 2:12–18 (In Russian)Google Scholar
  10. 10.
    Kononov YD, Korneev AG, Tkachenko VZ (1979) Modeling external production links of systems of individual industries. Ekonomika i matematicheskiye metody XV(5):969–977 (In Russian)Google Scholar
  11. 11.
    Kononov YD, Korneev AG, Tkachenko VZ (1988) Timelines of major energy programs. Siberian Energy Institute of the Siberian Branch of the Academy of Sciences of the Soviet Union, Irkutsk, p 75 (In Russian)Google Scholar
  12. 12.
    Karkhov AN (1990) Economic dynamics and the energy industry projections. Institute of Atomic Energy—5050/3, Moscow, p 39 (In Russian)Google Scholar
  13. 13.
    Energy in a finite world: a global systems analysis. Ballinger Publishing Company, Cambridge, MA, 1981, p 825Google Scholar
  14. 14.
    Kononov YD, Por A (1979) The economic impact model. RR-79-8. IIASA, Laxenburg, p 72Google Scholar
  15. 15.
    Kononov YD, Lyubimova EB, Tyrtyshny VN (1983) Issues of assessing macroeconomic consequences of long-term strategies of the energy industry development. Ekonomika i matematicheskiye metody 5:912–916 (In Russian)Google Scholar
  16. 16.
    Kossov VV, Livshits VN, Shakhnazarov AG (eds) (2000) Guidelines on the methods of the valuation of investment projects. Ekonomika, Moscow, p 421 (In Russian)Google Scholar
  17. 17.
    Livshits VN, Vilensky PL (2014) On common misunderstandings in the valuation of real investment projects. Ekonomika i matematicheskiye metody 1:3–23 (In Russian)Google Scholar
  18. 18.
    Tsvirkun AD (2008) The business plan. Investment analysis. Methods and software tools. Os’-89, Moscow, p 319 (In Russian)Google Scholar
  19. 19.
    Belkina EY, Dunaev VF (2012) A method of expert valuation of project risks as applied to research-and-development activities of an oil-and-gas company. Neft’, gaz i biznes 1–2:12–16. (In Russian)Google Scholar
  20. 20.
    Tarasenko SR (2009) Projecting the value of an investment project with the variables capable of mitigating negative externalities factored in. Problemy prognozirovaniia 3:161–166 (In Russian)Google Scholar
  21. 21.
    Kononov YD, Loktionov VI (2010) Accounting for investment risks when ranking large-scale projects based on their economic value. Upravlenie riskami 1:48–51 (In Russian)Google Scholar
  22. 22.
    Loktionov VI (2010) Risk-informed ranking of alternative options of Kovykta gas development. Izvestiia Irkutskoy gosudarstvennoy economicheskoi akademii (BGUEiP) 5:184–188 (In Russian)Google Scholar
  23. 23.
    The Ministry of Industry and Energy of the Russian Federation (2008) The general scheme (master plan) for the development of the gas industry until the year 2030 (draft). Moscow, p 145 (In Russian)Google Scholar
  24. 24.
    Lukyanov AS, Eskin VI, Shevchuk LM (1995) Quantitative risk assessment when choosing investment strategies in energy systems. Izvestiia RAN. Energetika 6:57–62 (In Russian)Google Scholar
  25. 25.
    Shevchuk LM, Lukianov AS, Kudryavtsev AA (2000) Risk analysis in the strategic planning problems for major energy companies. Izvestiia RAN. Energetika 2:52–64 (In Russian)Google Scholar
  26. 26.
    Vithayasrichareon P, MacGill IF (2012) A Monte Carlo based decision-support tool for assessing generation portfolios in future carbon constrained electricity industries. Energy Policy 41:374–392CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  27. 27.
    Tarasov AE (2010) Approaches to risk mitigation during the eastward extension of the Unified Gas System of the Russian Federation. The energy industry of Russia in the 21st century: development strategy: facing eastward. Proceedings of the joint symposium. The Melentiev Energy Systems Institute of the Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Irkutsk, p 699, pp 647–654 (In Russian)Google Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2020

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.IrkutskRussia

Personalised recommendations